Rare morps and their worth

I have a question mainly directed at the long-term breeders and keepers who have been in the business or world of Ball Pythons for the past 5, 10, 20 years... or longer. I'll try to explain my question the best that I can. I've only been in the snake/reptile/bp world less than a year, so forgive my ignorance if I'm overlooking something obvious.

My question is in regard to some rare morphs I've seen and their costs. Two I can think of off the top of my head are the Axanthic Piebald - Vpi Line, and the Urban Camo's that Osbourne Reptile offers on their site. I've both of these morphs for sale in the thousands of dollars. I'm not discrediting their worth at all. My question is, what if nobody buys these animals at that price, what happens next?

If you breed an animal you feel is worth let's say $1000, and price it for sale at that amount. Maybe you keep it for a few years and nobody buys it. Do you give up with that project? Do you use it to make more? Do you breed it with something else to see what happens? Do you lower your asking price? if you have 100 people say "I'd give you $500" for it, do you try to breed more and then sell them at $500/each?

I know that the more there are, generally, the price goes down. Just in the past year, I've seen the crazy growth in banana/coral glow morphs. The price of a banana has dropped a tad since I started looking at BP's around a year ago, but not a whole lot. I've read where some morphs maybe sold in the thousands 5 years ago and are $500 now. Is this just how the snake market works? Something fancy comes along and is a high-dollar item... but over time more and more of them are available so when supply is greater than demand, prices drop?

One of the reasons I ask is this, I think the two above mentioned morphs are absolutely amazing. I'd hate to see those morphs be bred out of existence because people couldn't afford them or just didn't breed them. Has that ever happened to a morph? I guess there is just a lot in the business that I don't understand. Thanks for reading, and if you have anything to add, I greatly appreciate it.

I'm not a BP breeder or even really into the herp world. But as a general business rule. . .you lower the price until you find the price people ARE willing to pay. Let's say you make furniture and make a nice hutch and list it for $5000. Maybe people don't think your furniture is worth $5000, or you've priced yourself out of the local market, so nobody buys it. So you offer it for $4000. . .and so on until you find a buyer. If that price doesn't cover your time and expenses, maybe you stop producing, or maybe it's your stress-relieving hobby so you don't care about that, but if it does cover your expenses there's no reason to stop producing just because you didn't make a huge profit.

As for BPs specifically, as I see it, it doesn't cost any more to produce different morphs (besides the initial price of the parent snakes), so I don't see any reason for someone to stop breeding their favorite morph just because prices go down. Unless they get out of breeding altogether for financial reasons.

ETA: those are 2 of my favorite morphs too, so I'm kind of hoping the prices come down eventually ;).

This is pure idle speculation on my part, but I sometimes wonder with the extremely high prices of some morphs, whether the price more reflects the breeder's willingness to sell an animal, or drum up interest and future sales. They are mostly planning on holding the fancy snake back, but would be willing to sell if someone really wanted it for $$$$. In the meantime, it's listed on the website for $5000, attracting interest and creating a perception that it's the hot new desirable thing and worth a high price. And then later when there are a few more of them out there, people will happily fork over $800 for its babies and feel like they're getting a bargain.

I have a hard time imagining that a gene would die out and disappear because it was too expensive to get popular, unless it was also prohibitively expensive to work with. And the only ways I can think of for that to be the case would be that most of the babies died or all required extensive/expensive intervention of some sort, etc, in which case the gene probably deserves to die out anyway.

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Originally Posted by Willowy

But as a general business rule. . .you lower the price until you find the price people ARE willing to pay.

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This. Sellers do not set prices, buyers do.

I could price a male normal het normal for $1000 but that doesn't mean he's worth $1000.

I guess I will answer the question plus give you some more insight based on my experience over the last decade (again I do not do this for a living but I went from being in the red to having a collection paying for itself to making a profit.

The economics of the snake industry are very simple it’s about supply and demand.

New mutations will always commend higher prices (also not has high as a decade or 2 ago when price were very inflated IMO) but the will commend higher price that will than drop as more animals hit the market. That being said some will maintain their value longer than other and those are recessive projects.

I always smile when people mention the price drop of the CG / Banana, that mutation has not drop any faster than other in the contrary it has held it’s value better than pinstripe or spider, people just don’t realize that because they have not been in this industry long enough. Banana and CG are not new back in 2007 Dave Matuzac had some in Daytona for 60K. They actually held their value better than other co-dom or dom mutation because of the Male maker, female Maker thing (at first there were mainly females on the market which meant the lack of ability to mass produce them like other mutations hence lower supply hence a value that maintain itself better)

Because of the economics of BP anyone wanting to do this without losing money must keep upgrading their collection and re-investing each year, if you don’t you will soon be left with animals that do not sale or take a long time of course you must also have a venue and a solid plan.

As far as pricing if you price your animals fairly (that requires knowing the market) they will sell and you will get your asking price or be within 10% of it if you are patient. While patience is key of course marketing, customer service, reputation will also play into getting your asking price.

Now economically is it worth it as a breeder to keep normal or low end co-dom around? No economically it makes because the reality of it is that by year’s end if not sold you will without a doubt lose money.

Now because price drop does not mean that projects will be abandoned and mutations will disappear from the market, in the contrary they now become more affordable for a larger amount snake enthusiasts that could not buy the snake of their dream 2, 5 or 10 years ago. Those mutations now enter a different market from breeding project to being pets, but they will still be there and still sell.

There is also the question of: What is my time worth?
In the automotive field you pay me for what I know, not for what I do. LoL

That being said, I want to know why people try to cram the most genes they can into an ugly animal?

Morphs/breeds/forms dying out, or very nearly so, has happened in fancy gold fish. I know of a few instances:

The Watoni had to be re-created. The original cross was known, but modern breeders had to painstakingly cull over multiple generations to get the fish back to what we think it was. The Tosakin was rescued from six fish in a single aquarium. Two more examples, are the Philadelphia veil tail. and the blue veil tail type fish from japan with an egg shaped body. I can't remember if these two were entirely lost, or if a small remnant of each survived. All these examples were beautiful, and were well established in the hobby previously.

You will also find this issue is very much of a concern in heritage livestock; look up The American Livestock Breeds Conservancy, and The Society for the Preservation of Poultry Antiquities.

Yes, beautiful, viable, and even uniquely useful/adapted varieties can and do die out.

Not worth much when the market is dying

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Originally Posted by stickyalvinroll

Not worth much when the market is dying

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Says who? Moved all the hatchlings this year :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
Though I do have animals listed that don't matter if I sell them or not.

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Originally Posted by stickyalvinroll

Not worth much when the market is dying

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Right funny though the market has been dying for a decade, yet some people that were here a decade ago are still here.

The issue is the lack of planning, the inability for people to take their collection further, the lack of marketing and business skills.

Those people are better off keeping pet and stop complaining the market is dying.

I am sold out and this season I already have sold some animals that hatched and that I have not even advertised.

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Originally Posted by stickyalvinroll

Not worth much when the market is dying

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I'm sold out as well except for two snakes I recently added to my site. Plus, I have waiting lists for some of my 2016 projects. This market has changed but you need to adapt and be realistic. If I told you what I've been offered for the King of Dinkers you'd be very surprised.

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Originally Posted by stickyalvinroll

Not worth much when the market is dying

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Marketing and sales is a skill set. Assuming that your animals are good quality, then you are simply doing something else wrong, but it is fixable.

Go to the business section your library/local book shop, and start reading. Amazon probably has a good selection too, and you can pick up a lot of info just from people's reviews. Doesn't matter if the item being sold is real estate, gemstones, or hamsters...most of the information will be transferable. There are two guys who talk about marketing specific to BP's, but I can't remember their names. One used to post his videos here on occasion (MA Balls??), and another has the first name of Colin, and he has a very good web site. Both are very informative. Maybe someone else who knows can add in the names and links.

Yes, in the US (where I assume you are), the economy sucks. Nevertheless, not everyone is living on the edge of destitution, and we have a LONG way to go before it gets that bad. People are still spending money for fun things, and you are fortunate to be in a field where you can draw customers from the entire country (the world, if you want to deal with the paperwork).

What about all the auctions that are happening on FB?
arent they hurting the market?

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Originally Posted by fLako0aGuiiLaR

What about all the auctions that are happening on FB?
arent they hurting the market?

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No, because not every potential buyer can or will participate, so by limiting the customer base the seller is limiting the price. "The market" is bigger than those auctions for a variety of reasons:
- Not everyone uses Facebook,
- The stipulations on the auction may exclude buyers, e.g. payment only by PayPal (and I won't use PayPal),
- If the auction ends at a time when I'm not online then I can't participate.

To get the best price for an online auction there needs to be an application like eBay or GunBroker behind it to draw in the greatest number of bidders, something where buyers can set a maximum bid so they don't have to be online to win the auction, where multiple payment methods are accepted, etc.

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Originally Posted by fLako0aGuiiLaR

What about all the auctions that are happening on FB?
arent they hurting the market?

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A fraction of a percentage doesn't even phase the market.

I stopped selling online and have 2 animals left for sale. I also know there are many combos I could produce that won't even make it to a show before they are sold. I may have to start selling online again at some point but right now my local scene is treating me good. This isn't a dying market, everyone was spoiled 10 years ago.

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Originally Posted by OhhWatALoser

This isn't a dying market, everyone was spoiled 10 years ago.

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THIS :number1:

I think the market is more adjusted now than at any other time I've been in the hobby.

I have never had to drop price on any Urban Camos. I have a list of people wanting them and I only have 5 babies left from last year's clutches. The market has been dying for years and those who stuck around and did the right breeding strategy are doing well. I don't pair animals just to produce a clutch. I have set pairings I plan out and if they don't go I try again next year. Most people complaining are the ones that want it now. You have to breed for the future and think about market direction. Breeding for Bumble Bees isn't going to change the game.

I'm not sure if anyone one has hit on this yet but those outlandish prices are typically paid by other breeders to try and get projects going.
Scaleless heads are pretty pricey right now and I can only assume that scaleless bps are even more so. But once all the breeders have them and are pumping out scaleless then the price will start to drop, though I think that the scaleless might hold value due to the scaleless head being mostly used as breeding stock.

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Agreed. Since scaleless snakes are the super form I think the scaleless gene will hold value better than most codoms. It's similar to producing BELs, which have always been popular.

To answer the OP's question: I very much doubt that any morph will be bred out of existence due to pricing. It always comes down in the end. The scaleless project is a prime example. Those snakes are prohibitively expensive for me, but I've seen a whole lot more of them this year than I did last year, and at lower prices.

For the most part, it's breeders that will be buying high end investment animals in order to strengthen their own collections. I don't have a lot of experience, but I agree with those who do when they say you have to adapt to the market. What that means is that breeders have to broaden their own collections. Try out new genes, produce new combos, and stay on top of changes in the market and in morphology. If you breed the same snakes year after year you're not going to get anywhere. So it becomes a competition. Not just against other breeders, but against yourself.

I haven't even had my first clutch yet, but I'm in the process of breeding and I'm already planning what I'll pair next year and the year after that. I have long-term goals that include producing more and different combos, mainly visual recessive/codom combos, and some double recessives too. I'm sure I'll also add more genes to my collection as I go.

I'm excited about ball pythons and I want to stay on top of what's new and interesting, even the projects I can't possibly afford. Today's out of reach snake will be affordable eventually. It's only a matter of time.

Pricing comes down to supply and demand, nothing else.

I actually bought a pastel spider pied for half price, the guy bought it and within a month decided he wanted to get out of snakes. He posted it on Morphmarket and said local sales only, good thing it wasn't far from my house. The only problem was that now that he sold it for half price other people immediately followed suit and I saw other pastel spider pieds sell for the same price. In fact soon after that I saw a whole bunch of breeder males and females posted, I imagine that breeders realized the price was tanking and decided to get out of that morph and into something else. That one sale turned the market upside down overnight for that particular morph.

I think a lot of people look for the cheapest price and then price a little lower to move their snakes faster. The only problem is that it hurts everyone in the market and it's a downward spiral. Only the very experienced breeders will set the prices at the high end and hold out for those buyers that will pay. If you lowball everyone else you are hurting yourself and everyone else. If you want to lowball everyone I'd suggest making some private deals with local pet stores or wholesale them.

Also, it's not only about historical prices listed on Morphmarket or other sites, it's about what is available at any given moment. I looked for a Pinstripe Pied female for almost a year before someone posted one and I bought it. I was so desperate for that morph I would have paid double what they were going for just to get that project moving along. I got one at a reasonable price but now I'm a year behind on that project, if I would have paid more a year earlier I would have made a return much faster since it takes about 3 years to breed females.

Some morphs drop in price very fast, others hardly at all. Look at the 'Tri-stripe' gene. Not many people getting into that and not many for sale, but the prices remain high. I've also seen people with a whole table of unique morphs at the show and complaining that no one is buying. I think its because it's not that unique of a morph, you have to show me what it can do and impress me before I'll invest in that project.

I think some morphs are way over rated, like the clowns. I'd much rather get into the pied project, just seems to be much more of an impressive morph even though they are a bit cheaper. And you can't go wrong with the coral glow / banana. Nothing else even comes close to looking like that.

So basically it comes down to = how many people want to get into that morph (what is the demand?) and how many of those morphs are out there (what is the supply?). If you have a snake that I want and you have the only one and I'm sitting on a pile of cash I'll pay it. And especially if I'm a breeder and can start generating some return on that investment in the coming years.

As others have already said, its the buyers who set the price, not the sellers. A seller can list his pied for $600 but if no one buys it, then he is stuck with feeding and taking care of that pied until or if he finds someone who wants to pay his price or he will have to drop the price.

Problem with the ball python market is it is heavily saturated and unless you have something special or you are a well known breeder, you could end sitting on your stock for awhile. Like said, it's all about supply and demand

I personally expect to see the burmese market get a resurgence since they nixed the interstate ban part of the Lacey Act. I've already seen a lot of people looking for burms on FB. I sort of see the same with retics as they come in as many if not more colors and combos than pet rocks, i mean BPs :P. Then give it about 2 years and we will see a huge offloading of said burms and retics as people that dove head first into it just to be cool and say they own a retic or burm realize they get big and need big cages and big food lol. Heck, Caesar is up to jumbo rats now and he's just over a year old and a super dwarf.

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Originally Posted by cchardwick

I actually bought a pastel spider pied for half price, the guy bought it and within a month decided he wanted to get out of snakes. He posted it on Morphmarket and said local sales only, good thing it wasn't far from my house. The only problem was that now that he sold it for half price other people immediately followed suit and I saw other pastel spider pieds sell for the same price. In fact soon after that I saw a whole bunch of breeder males and females posted, I imagine that breeders realized the price was tanking and decided to get out of that morph and into something else. That one sale turned the market upside down overnight for that particular morph.

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Which was silly because the price for this particular critter was limited by the seller. There are a lot of buyers who won't touch an animal from someone getting out of snakes, for fear that the seller is doing so b/c there's a disease in the collection and the seller wants to dump his stock before they get sick. There's also little or no chance of follow-up service or of returning the critter if it's not as described. In addition the seller wanted only local sales, which limits the buying pool, and thus the price. The value of animals being sold by people who are planning on staying in the business/hobby and who are willing to ship should not have been affected.