[Rumor time] BP Economy taking a dive soon??

So I was talking with a couple who have been breeding snakes and been in the "game" lol for 30 years now. They brought up that the ball python scene is taking a bit of a dive soon. They made a valid point with A LOT of people starting to breed, and all these new morphs coming out that the supply is higher than the demand. I just wanted to start a nice discussion on what you guys think?!

Every year I hear the same thing but every year I sell my snakes. I have one 2011 left and so far I've sold five 2012s within 24 hours of putting them on my website. I'm not worried, this is a very popular hobby and while the supply increases each year it seems that demand does as well.

New morphs = New supply = New Demand

The sky's been falling on this hobby for almost as long as people have been waiting for the second coming.

My theory is that the two events are actually tied together and when the trumpet sounds and JC shows up in the clouds, he'll be holding a sweet Coral Glow Pied in one hand and an Axanthic Killer Clown in the other...

:rolleyes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYrHOBB5zoY

Here's a video from a big breeder who doesn't seem that concerned about the market. Video was made just last month.

95% of the breeders out there aren't producing anything in volume... They have a handful of clutches each year. It's not like everyone is BHB or NERD.

I don't think that we will ever see a sudden drop off, it's not like the stock market where everyone can pull their money out overnight. If anything a gradual reduction in sales over years maybe but nothing catastrophic.

For every serious breeder that gets into (and stays) in the game I bet 5 people who don't breed or only produce a few clutches get into the hobby. Online we really don't see these people much because either they don't have enough interest in the hobby, or they have already figured out their husbandry and don't need to ask questions.

Disagree and I do market analysis for huge banks and hedge funds for a living.

I think this issue might need to be more clearly defined, though. What are you meaning by 'taking a dive?'

I think the market is very stable and will actually improve over the next few years for many reasons. The hobby is being taken up by more and more people, it's not only common base morphs that are "affordable" anymore, and there are still endless combos to be made yet as well as many morphs that haven't been widely released and several promising projects in the proving out stages.

Established reputable breeders sell out year after year, trades take place on big and small scales, and for anyone who has trouble moving animals, they can always sell them to a reseller who no doubt will be able to move them. I don't think the demand is diminishing in the least.

The ball python business has been 'taking a dive' for several years now. Personally I find the feeling of weightlessness while in free fall exhilarating. :floating:

I don't think it will take a dive. Before I even acquired my breeding group I had people taking numbers for snakes. I'm still a year or two away from even paring and it's as if the clutches are already sold. This hobby seems nuts like that.

Paul

Breeders ARE buyers. Too many people seem to ignore this, lol. Who do you think is buying morphs? Not pet owners.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

Breeders ARE buyers. Too many people seem to ignore this, lol. Who do you think is buying morphs? Not pet owners.

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Yes and no. Yes breeders buy, but so do pet owners.

Yes chicken little the market is falling. At least as far as the prices for single gene morphs. But it's no where near crashing with so many morphs and combos and directions to take. If you want a solid breeding plan that won't quickly crash work on double and triple recessive combos.

Have you seen the revolving door of collection sales from people that get in thinking its a get rich quick scheme? They soon realize that it takes hard work, time, financial investment, and dedication to be successful just like any other business. For every handful of people that join there are a handful that are selling their collections. I see it over and over on forums, Facebook, and even locally. I think there is a great business opportunity for committed people.

Regards,

B

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Originally Posted by Simple Man

Have you seen the revolving door of collection sales from people that get in thinking its a get rich quick scheme? They soon realize that it takes hard work, time, financial investment, and dedication to be successful just like any other business. For every handful of people that join there are a handful that are selling their collections. I see it over and over on forums, Facebook, and even locally. I think there is a great business opportunity for committed people.

Regards,

B

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Very well said brian, i agree with that^:gj:

Ive already had two people tell me they would love to trade for or buy bps with/from me and i wont be breeding for the first time until this fall. I also will probably end up trading snakes i produce for my bps lol. (the ones i choose not to holdback that is...).

I love this hobby and even if it takes a nose dive ill still probably stick with it haha.:gj:

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Originally Posted by MrLang

Disagree and I do market analysis for huge banks and hedge funds for a living.

I think this issue might need to be more clearly defined, though. What are you meaning by 'taking a dive?'

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I mean dropping off/ slowing down/ less interest/ not enough demand for the supply/ you get it..

Wow alot of great points. It's just interesting to see everyone's view and experience with this market. I wont be breeding until next season but this is just such a great hobby. It's like therapy for me to take care of these guys, watch them grow, and make some killer clutches while I'm at it ;) I sure hope nothing dies down and defiantly hope the hobby grows!

The biggest thing I would personally worry about on this note would be a ban either on the transport/ sale or possibly even possession of these snakes as we recently saw with burms, retics, and the like. This is why IMO we need to keep up on the current status of suggested legislature in our states and nationwide Also if we're financially able, donate to and join USARK. I am definitely guilty of not doing as much as I probably could have to fight that law being passed and I regret it.

Sent from my PG86100 using Tapatalk 2

Well, the way I see it, all markets have their ups and downs.

Breeding ball pythons may seem like the next "get rich quick" scheme, and yes there are a number of people every year who get in over their heads buying, buying, buying. But then, six months or a year later, when they realize just what is involved in successful breeding, these people get right back out again, and because most of them at that point are frustrated beyond belief at the failure of their plans, they often sell their animals at ridiculous prices.

However, there are new people coming into this hobby at a pretty steady rate, and as long as there are newer hobbyists, there will be a market for the inexpensive normals and single gene morphs. As the new hobbyists become more aware of the enjoyment to be had with these animals, more and more of them will become interested in breeding for the right reasons, and thus the market will perpetuate itself. As long as we do our part to ensure we as reptile keepers don't let the morons at HSUS and PETA take or animals away from us.

Gale

I think the ball python market has went through a correction and had to adjust prices due to the recession.

A lot of people lost their jobs and had to sell their collection. People also got in thinking it would be an instant additional income stream, but nobody told them it would take 2 years before their females would be big enough to breed and in the mean time you are stuck with the care bill that comes out of your day job.

I think once a strong recovery in the economy takes place and we can actually start to see unemployment numbers go down demand will once again out strip supply as people start to get back into the hobby.

Also today we have more people than ever doing reptile education programs for kids. This is creating a future generation that is more aware of the various pets available to them. When I got out of High School in 1993 only weirdo people would have snakes as pets, now days it has started to become more acceptible.

Overall I see a huge pick up once as a nation we can get our economy expanding at about a 4% rate or better again.

I've seen many similar threads about the market crashing or what not over the years. I personally don't think this market is going anywhere anytime soon. I know so many breeders that sell out of animals yearly despite the " market is crashing " speculation that arises ever so often.

I agree with Coleslaw. The only real way it could ever 'take a dive' is if legislation starts running wild.

I don't think the demand for ball pythons is dropping, but the price of the morphs are for sure. I've seen this especially with pieds, it's ridiculous!

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Originally Posted by carlisleishere

I don't think the demand for ball pythons is dropping, but the price of the morphs are for sure. I've seen this especially with pieds, it's ridiculous!

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How is it ridiculous? It is supply and demand. More people are producing Pieds, so there is more supply for the level of demand. This happens to all morphs at some point; some sooner than others.

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Originally Posted by jinx667

How is it ridiculous? It is supply and demand. More people are producing Pieds, so there is more supply for the level of demand. This happens to all morphs at some point; some sooner than others.

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Maybe it's a local thing, but I've seen proven het pied females go for the same price as proven normal females, and just 2 months ago they were 600-700 dollars. That's what is ridiculous to me. Sorry, I should have been more specific in my statement.

when you used to get $20,000 for a pinstripe and you now get $150...its taken a dive ;) It is all relative. New morphs and new combos will generate new demand to backfill what is dropping off.

Well, if it does I'll finally be able to afford some of the snakes I've wanted for so long!!!

I sell snakes - but keeping snakes I love is my hobby :D

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Originally Posted by carlisleishere

I don't think the demand for ball pythons is dropping, but the price of the morphs are for sure. I've seen this especially with pieds, it's ridiculous!

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Really? I think pieds is one of the few morphs out there that has held some longevity in its pricing to an extent.

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Originally Posted by Rob

Yes and no. Yes breeders buy, but so do pet owners.

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The percentage of people who buy ball pythons morphs for pets only is vanishingly small. The vast majority of people buying morphs, buy them because they intend to breed them, or think they may one day try breeding them.

This is why you see so few ball python morphs in pet stores. Pet buyers AREN'T that interested in them. Their price tags are simply too high. I think I've sold a grand total of two morphs to pet keepers since I started breeding (2007), not including low-end het males, which sell for very little more than normals, and look normal.

What folks who are in this for the long haul really need to do is start encouraging newcomers---instead of discouraging them! They need to help newbies make a plan that WILL work, help them understand what is involved in being successful and getting started properly. In other words, we need to market our industry, not just our animals, because those newcomers ARE OUR CUSTOMERS. Without them, there will be few morph sales.

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Originally Posted by carlisleishere

Maybe it's a local thing, but I've seen proven het pied females go for the same price as proven normal females, and just 2 months ago they were 600-700 dollars. That's what is ridiculous to me.

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Exactly WHERE did you see that? Did they have paperwork? I would certainly be suspicious of a het pied female being sold for the price of a normal...why would anyone do that, if it was legitimate? If they had an emergency, and couldn't sell her quick, then perhaps...but that's a one-off situation, not a trend.

If they have legit paperwork and there are more of them, I'll take them. lol

the market isnt crashing its changing. you have to realize, that while single gene morphs prices are dropping , their perspective markets are as well. once an animal hits a certain price point it can enter into the "normal" pet trade. so you wont be getting 1000 bucks for your pastel. you can sell 10 pastels for 400 bucks to a pet store. so if your producing the less expensive animals then in order to make money at it you must produce a lot of animals. or like most of us we only produce enough to cover our own costs and to trade up or create the more expensive morphs for our selves.
i started breeding snakes 12-15 years ago just to produce more animals for ME. i never even thought about making money at it. once you cross that bridge you will sorely disappointed unless you have gobs of money and time to go BIG.
adam jeffery

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

Exactly WHERE did you see that? Did they have paperwork? I would certainly be suspicious of a het pied female being sold for the price of a normal...why would anyone do that, if it was legitimate? If they had an emergency, and couldn't sell her quick, then perhaps...but that's a one-off situation, not a trend.

If they have legit paperwork and there are more of them, I'll take them. lol

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I saw about 4 of them for sale, by different people. All of them had awesome feedback, but you never know... 250 for a proven het female is insane.

I am fairly new to this hobby and I plan to breed my animals. Where it takes me is all in the stars however I spend a lot of time looking at MANY different sites for available morphs. It would seem the market is just fine considering theres almost nothing available right now because its kind of the like the eye of the storm as far as 2012 hatchlings becoming available soon but the 2011s being nearly sold out everywhere. I imagine it is more of a breeder network sales concept. Breeders supply breeders/upcoming breeders whether they do it for themselves or they aspire to be the next big breeder. There are still numerous possibilities and as long as there are I just dont see it taking a nose dive anytime soon...

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Originally Posted by carlisleishere

I saw about 4 of them for sale, by different people. All of them had awesome feedback, but you never know... 250 for a proven het female is insane.

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Seriously, where did you see this?

I think we might see a slight reduction in the bp market as we do every 3-4yrs....then it will pick back up. What I think we will see, is the resurgence in the boa market.

I have been keeping balls since January of 2008 and herps in general for even longer. I have NEVER seen a "crash" in the ball market or any other herp's market as a whole. I have however seen the "crash" of a given morph within a species. Leopard geckos and the RAPTOR, Enigma and Diablo Blanco morphs are a few examples and the motley morph of Boa constrictor is another.

Some on here have suggested that they do think we are in a slump hobbywise, and that when the economy recovers the demand will again be greater than the supply. I for one have never seen demand outpace supply in this hobby nor do I believe that it ever will. Even last month and now, before there were any or many 2012 hatchlings out, Kingsnake.com's classified section had at least 100 new ball ads posted every day, meaning that supply is doing just fine. I've yet to feel any effects of this recession on my life in general either, but that is neither here nor there.

I have breeding plans, as well as plans for acquiring new snakes and breeding them as well, but it is for my own enjoyment and not for any kind of monetary gain. I love new life and raising things from birth. I love the perverbial "roll of the dice" when dealing with genetics. I love eggs hatching and waiting to see what you've got when they start pipping. Even though I own and produce higher end stuff I still don't even expect to break even - not even close. In my honest opinion, this hobby is going nowhere. This is coming from a guy who has looked at thousands of ads and for sale listings a year for the last 5 years and has watched prices drop on older morphs while new morphs all start at around the $20,000 range.

My $0.02, take it for what you personally feel that it is worth.

Well put^

Thanks everyone for not fighting I think this is the only forum I've been to where people dont bash every second (car forums are ridiculous!!) All these opinions and .02 were great to read!