what are the odds of nothing???

hi, i was just wandering if there is anyone that could tell me what the odds are of me hitting nothing.... i paired up my pied with a het pied that i bought as"100% het". she gave me 6 good eggs and all hatched!!!! but there was no pieds......... now, i know that there is always the chance of someone pulling over a fast one on you and misrepresenting a animal, but im willing to give them the benifit of the doubt... (unless theres a 99.5% chance that i should get atleast one pied.)
i know that hets are a gamble, and the only way to conferm shees NOT a het is to breed her again and then see what hapens, but i was just wandering ,,,,,,how bad my luck was:8:.
thanks
spooky

Well each egg had a 50/50 shot of being a pied. So its possible you did just have ridiculously bad odds. It happens, you see people who do het x het and they get 5 eggs and 4 visuals. Or vice versa. I think you have to do the pairing again before you start questioning whether she's a het or not.

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Originally Posted by Blue Apple Herps

Well each egg had a 50/50 shot of being a pied. So its possible you did just have ridiculously bad odds. It happens, you see people who do het x het and they get 5 eggs and 4 visuals. Or vice versa. I think you have to do the pairing again before you start questioning whether she's a het or not.

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I agree! After this I would get a pied male to see if she really even is het pied.

If you put a pied to a 100% het pied you should have hit. But theres always a chance you just got beat by the odds gods. If you had dropped 8 eggs and all normals i would be pretty convinced it was not a het. But the only way to know for sure is to breed em again. I bred my pied last year to 3 hets and got 4 eggs out of one girl and 7 out of another and 9 out of the third. The one with 4 eggs gave me all hets, the one with 7 gave me 2 pieds and the one with 9 gave me 5 pieds so there is never a gaurantee when messing with recessive genes

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Originally Posted by KingPythons

I agree! After this I would get a pied male to see if she really even is het pied.

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i did use a pied male....... thats why i was asking about the odds. i was wandering pracentage wise just how unlucky i was LOL
spooky

thanks for the replies,,, its good to know form the experience of others.. guess all thats left to do is try again........
thanks
spooky

I would breed her again and see! I breed a Spider to a Normal and got all normals! Some of us aren't as lucky as others! Now you know that your babies are all 100% het pied!

Odds are fickle at best, we only got 2 black pastels from 10 eggs clown X black pastel but got 8 black pastel het albino's out of 9 eggs in a black pastel X albino clutch.

Hopefully next season you get some pieds or else! lol

The chance of missing on six 50/50 eggs in a row is 0.5^6 = 1.5625% so your chance of getting at least one pied was 98.4375%

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

The chance of missing on six 50/50 eggs in a row is 0.5^6 = 1.5625% so your chance of getting at least one pied was 98.4375%

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hahahahaha thanks,, that was what i was looking for,, i dident know how to determin odds,,,,, soooooooooo anybody want me to tell them the winning numbers???:D:D:D
thanks
spooky

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

The chance of missing on six 50/50 eggs in a row is 0.5^6 = 1.5625% so your chance of getting at least one pied was 98.4375%

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Woo!! I'm not crazy! :taz:

My first clutch was a pastel to a normal. We had 8 eggs and 9 babies...And only got 1 pastel! This hobby can be very humbling! Just try again next year and I'm sorry about your luck.

Yup, 1/64 chance of NOT getting a pied.

You get that from each egg being a 1/2 chance of being a pied. So for one egg to not be a pied, AND another egg not be a pied is a 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 chance. Just keep expanding that for 6 eggs.

It happens more than you think. I've spoke with several people that took 2-3 years to prove their 100% het was actually a het.

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Originally Posted by SlitherinSisters

It happens more than you think. I've spoke with several people that took 2-3 years to prove their 100% het was actually a het.

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thanks for the reply... i dont have nothing to loose, so ill pair them up a few times more. i dont guess theres anything wrong with having a dedicated 100% het producer.........:D im trying to look on the bright side of things:D
thanks
spooky

I gotten 1 pied from a 100% het to 100% het last season this seasdon I got slugs ( and she gain over 300 grams from her laying weight) and I got 6 eggs.
you should of hit the odds at least once. I be wondering about the person you got her from if you don't get a pied in the next clutch. I only but hets if they got paper work, and if i get some thing the ( like my mojave ) that only 50% het pied she a normal until I can prove her out.

I have the same problem now. I bought some het albinos in around 2002, I bred them this season for the first time long story how i took so long.

This year they didn't prove out will be doing the same breeding this season coming to see how my luck goes if nothing will be replacing with a albino male.

Also bred some spiders this season one clutch is hatching now which was bred with a albino female i bought in. Theres 3 Spiders of 5 eggs. So average odds there. One of the eggs has yet to pip.

I'd try one more time and hope to make a pied, otherwise somethings not right.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

your chance of getting at least one pied was 98.4375%

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UR GOLDEN give it another go.. U got 1.5625% room in stead of a measly .5%

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Originally Posted by mr.spooky

(unless theres a 99.5% chance that i should get atleast one pied.)

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Originally Posted by Simplex

UR GOLDEN give it another go.. U got 1.5625% room in stead of a measly .5%

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so are you saying i have a chance?:banana:
spooky