het albinos

I used the genetic wizard to see what I'd get from two het albinos and it said

25%: Normal
25%: Het Albino
25%: Het Albino
25%: Albino

what's with the two het albinos and how can you tell them from a normal?

You would only be able to tell if it is a het or not by breeding it backk to an albino. If it produces albinos its a het if it produces all norms its a norm.

BTW it can be done with another het but it would have to be a 100% het

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Originally Posted by Kyle1989

what's with the two het albinos and how can you tell them from a normal?

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Those have a 66% chance of being hets, the only way to know for sure is to breed a visual or a 100% het to it to see if they are indeed carrying the albino gene.

Hets look just like a normal! If you are breeding hets then hopefully you can get an albino from the clutch and breed it back to one of the known hets for better odds at more albinos! Remember, those odds are per egg not per clutch!

So if you breed the 66 possible het back to the albino and get albinos, can you say that baby is Het or 100%?

Well Het and 100% Het are the same thing, they are both Heterozygous for Albino. But yes you can't tell Het's from Normals when it comes to most recessives.

Quick Question!

If i breed 2 100% het's together what are the odds for getting a albino! Garrick has a 100% het group for $165. If the odds are good I might get into that project!:bow::bow::bow:

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Originally Posted by BEasy119

Quick Question!

If i breed 2 100% het's together what are the odds for getting a albino! Garrick has a 100% het group for $165. If the odds are good I might get into that project!:bow::bow::bow:

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Quick answer!

The odds from a het x het pair look like this:

25% albino :gj:
50% het albino
25% normal

The hets and normals will all look just like normals. Each normal looking one has a 66% chance of being het albino, and you won't know which is which without proving them by breeding. Thus the name "66% het albino." The other way to look at the odds would be like this:

25% albino
75% "66% het albino"

Hope that helps! :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vpjimmyd

Quick answer!

The odds from a het x het pair look like this:

25% albino :gj:
50% het albino
25% normal

The hets and normals will all look just like normals. Each normal looking one has a 66% chance of being het albino, and you won't know which is which without proving them by breeding. Thus the name "66% het albino." The other way to look at the odds would be like this:

25% albino
75% "66% het albino"

Hope that helps! :D

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Yes you helped the het thing always seem real tricky to me! But Albinos was and is one of my favorites BP's it's what actually made me want one!

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Originally Posted by BEasy119

Yes you helped the het thing always seem real tricky to me! But Albinos was and is one of my favorites BP's it's what actually made me want one!

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Ya it seemed kinda tricky to me to but I got a good deal on them so I figured why not what could go wrong let me if you decide to do it to.

with a 25 % chance for albino, if your female has 4 to 8 eggs then you have a good chance of getting one. 25 % is per egg, but 4 eggs doesn't = 100 %, but more eggs betters your chances.

Hi,

Your not wrong on the math. :rage:

I asked a mathematician friend what the odds were of a female black pastel out of a clutch of 6 eggs.

Apparently it works out that the chance of a female black pastel in a 6 egg clutch is 6% but the chance of no black pastel females is 18% :confused: :confused: :confused:

I'm not so much number blind as thick and still can't get my head around that one. :taz:

I trust it to be true - I just don't understand probability well enough to know why. :(


dr del

Dr. Del,

I think that the reason your female pastel odds seem weird is dependent on what was asked of your mathematician friend. There is a difference between asking for the odds of 1 and ONLY 1 female black pastel vs. at LEAST 1 female black pastel or even 1 female black pastel and a few male pastels.

It should be logical that the odds for getting a female black pastel PLUS the odds for NOT getting a female black pastel should equal 100%. It is all in the subtleties of what is asked.

I'm not sure what was asked of your mathematician friend, but assuming that the odds of producing a black pastel is 1/4 (black pastel is recessive right?) then I THINK the odds work this way:

Your possible outcomes are Pastels, Non-pastel, Non-pastels, Non-pastels. We list three Non-pastels as potential outcome because there is 3/4 chance of non-pastels.

If we add gender, then we get M Pastel, F Pastel, M Non, F Non, M Non, F Non, M Non, F non so basically 8 different outcomes.

So per egg, you have a 1/8 chance of getting a female black pastel and 7/8 chance of not getting one.

Each egg is an Independent event, which means the outcome of one egg does not influence the outcome of another egg. For independent events if you are trying to calculate the odds of one thing AND another thing happening, you multiply the odds.

So the odds of getting NO female black pastels would be the odds of not getting a female black pastel on egg 1 AND egg 2 and egg 3... etc.

In equation form that looks like = (7/8)*(7/8)*(7/8) etc. etc. OR an easier way to write it would be Probability of NO female black pastels = (7/8)^n where n=total number of eggs, in this case 6

So in an 6 egg clutch, the probability of NO female black pastels at all should be (7/8)^6 = 44.9%

From that we can derive that the probability of at LEAST one female black pastel is = 100-odds of NO female black pastels or 100-44.9 = 55.1%

So in theory you can calculate the odds of at LEAST one female black pastel in an egg clutch by 1-(7/8)^n where n = number of eggs in a clutch.

Note that we do not calculate the odds of at LEAST one female black pastel by multiplying (1/8)*(1/8) so on etc. because that method would give us the probability of getting a female black pastel in every single egg (which by the way is very small odds, .000381%)

Rather calculating the odds of NOT getting a female black pastel and then subtracting from 100%, you can calculate the odds of a getting a female black pastel from the 1/8 number but the equation gets ugly fast the larger the number of eggs. I prefer to keep things simple.

For those that want to know the odds of getting say at least one albino regardless of sex out a given egg clutch, the equation is 1-(3/4)^(Number of eggs)

I think this is right, perhaps someone out there can verify or disagree with my math?

Hi,

I asked him and he says you are correct in the method used. :gj:

But black pastels are co-dominant so each egg has a 50% chance of being a black pastel and 50% chance of being female so the numbers for getting any female black pastels in a 6 egg clutch are;

(1-.75^6) x 100 which is 82.202% :banana: :banana:

He also walked me through how to work out the chances of the various combinations of sex and morphs in the whole clutch. My head hurts. :oops:

So I worked out the chance of getting 6 black pastel females was 0.024% :rolleyes:

Not holding my breath on that one. :rofl:

But my chance of getting any black pastels irrespective of their sex is a whopping 98.43%

Now them's good odds. :yes:


dr del

Ah yeah I didn't realize black pastels were co-dominant. I bet it does make you feel good that you have that high of a chance at a black pastel period.

I've got a pair of het albino ball pythons that are right at about a year old and so I was doing calculations to see what my odds were of getting an albino if/when I ever get them to breed. I was fairly encouraged.

Its just the luck of the draw!