calculating price based on het. %?

Title kind speaks for itself.

But lets say I have a

Spider 50% het. albino Male
x
Pastel 100% het. axanthic 50% het. ghost Female

what would the odds of the offspring be?

3.13%: Normal
3.13%: Het Axanthic
3.13%: Pastel
3.13%: Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Het Axanthic, Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Axanthic, Pastel
3.13%: Het Axanthic, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Axanthic
3.13%: Het Albino, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Axanthic, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Spider
3.13%: Spider, Het Axanthic
3.13%: Spider, Pastel
3.13%: Spider, Het Ghost
3.13%: Spider, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Spider, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost
3.13%: Spider, Het Axanthic, Pastel
3.13%: Spider, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Axanthic
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Ghost, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Axanthic, Pastel
3.13%: Het Albino, Spider, Het Axanthic, Het Ghost, Pastel

which should translate:
25% of Normals all 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Pastels all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Spiders all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Spider Pastels all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino

So if I lets say get one of each in the clutch:
Spider
Pastel
and a
Spider Pastel

Lets say I sell a Spider Pastel that came out the clutch.
Is it considered a Spider Pastel 50% het Axanthic, 50% het. Ghost, 50% het. Albino, or would I simply use the initial 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino?

I'm sure the odds are correct, but how does it usually affect the price of the animal?
I want to properly learn how to calculate prices with recessive genes.
I think I have a good understanding but I want to be sure.


Any feedback would greatly be appreciated.

Thanks

I think at this point, the odds are too low to justify any kind of price increase. You'd essentially be selling an animal that you have absolutely no certain of the genetics. From a buyer's perspective, it's not worth it to try to prove out the 3 possible hets this animal has... unless it's a good deal (maybe no more than $50 more than a regular normal, assuming we're talking about normal hets here)

Just my 2 cents

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mmca

I think at this point, the odds are too low to justify any kind of price increase. You'd essentially be selling an animal that you have absolutely no certain of the genetics. From a buyer's perspective, it's not worth it to try to prove out the 3 possible hets this animal has... unless it's a good deal (maybe no more than $50 more than a regular normal, assuming we're talking about normal hets here)

Just my 2 cents

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Okay I see. So the normals would be worthless essentially selling them as normals, I got that.

I used the above example, but let's say I am using a male that is currently worth $5000, rather than the lesser but with the same conditions. Does that still make a difference? I just want to get this clear in my mind.

A 25% increase minus the loss in value of the morph?

Sorry for the double post.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ralphdp21

Okay I see. So the normals would be worthless essentially selling them as normals, I got that.

I used the above example, but let's say I am using a male that is currently worth $5000, rather than the lesser but with the same conditions. Does that still make a difference? I just want to get this clear in my mind.

---

Maybe. "It's only worth as much as what the buyer is willing to pay."

What I was trying to get at is that from a buyer's perspective, one would be spending 3 years raising the triple het animal up, trying to prove it's het for A, failed. try again next year Het for B, failed. try again het for C, failed. It's simply too time consuming of a project to justify the extra dollar paid in the beginning.

IMHO, the $5000 animal wouldn't be any different from our "normal" example before. The odds are still too low to justify any increase in price, so in other words, the odds justifies the price increase for possible hets.

Remember, we're talking POSSIBLE hets. if these are 100%, it'd be an entirely different story!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mmca

Maybe. "It's only worth as much as what the buyer is willing to pay."

What I was trying to get at is that from a buyer's perspective, one would be spending 3 years raising the triple het animal up, trying to prove it's het for A, failed. try again next year Het for B, failed. try again het for C, failed. It's simply too time consuming of a project to justify the extra dollar paid in the beginning.

IMHO, the $5000 animal wouldn't be any different from our "normal" example before. The odds are still too low to justify any increase in price, so in other words, the odds justifies the price increase for possible hets.

Remember, we're talking POSSIBLE hets. if these are 100%, it'd be an entirely different story!

---

okay cool. im pretty sure I understand now.
thank you.

One more question.
What would that $5000 snake be next year, if it wasnt bred like crazy, 25% less?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ralphdp21

Spider 50% het. albino Male x Pastel 100% het. axanthic 50% het. ghost Female

what would the odds of the offspring be?

...

which should translate:
25% of Normals all 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Pastels all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Spiders all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino
25% of Spider Pastels all possible 12% het. Axanthic, 6% het. Ghost, 12% het. Albino

---

I’m a little confused as to where you’re getting the 12% and 6% chance Hets for the actual label of the snakes. These are independent genes, so they won’t affect the chance of inheriting other genes. There’s a 6.25% chance that a hatchling will inherit all three recessive genes (if the Spider is 100% Het Albino and the Pastel is 100% Het Axanthic and 100% Het Ghost).

Anyway, here is what you can calculate:

Spider 50% Het Albino x Pastel 100% Het Axanthic and 50% Ghost:

1/4 Normal, 50% Het Axanthic, 25% Het Albino, and 25% Het Ghost
1/4 Spider, 50% Het Axanthic, 25% Het Albino, and 25% Het Ghost
1/4 Pastel, 50% Het Axanthic, 25% Het Albino, and 25% Het Ghost
1/4 Bumblebee, 50% Het Axanthic, 25% Het Albino, and 25% Het Ghost

Since you don’t know if the parents actually even have the Albino and/or Ghost gene, any genotypic breakdown of the percentage of hatchlings that’ll inherit the different recessive genes is purely speculation.

If you prove out the genotypes of the parents or you happen to know, here is what you’d label the hatchlings as:

Spider 100% Het Albino x Pastel Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Axanthic and 100% Het Ghost):

1/32 Normal
1/32 Normal, 100% Het Albino
1/32 Normal, 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Normal, 100% Het Ghost
1/32 Normal, Double Het Snow (100% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Normal, Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Normal, Double Het Sunglow (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Albino)
1/32 Normal, 100% Het Albino, 100% Het Ghost, and 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Spider
1/32 Spider, 100% Het Albino
1/32 Spider, 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Spider, 100% Het Ghost
1/32 Spider, Double Het Snow (100% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Spider, Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Spider, Double Het Sunglow (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Albino)
1/32 Spider, 100% Het Albino, 100% Het Ghost, and 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Pastel
1/32 Pastel, 100% Het Albino
1/32 Pastel, 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Pastel, 100% Het Ghost
1/32 Pastel, Double Het Snow (100% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Pastel, Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Pastel, Double Het Sunglow (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Albino)
1/32 Pastel, 100% Het Albino, 100% Het Ghost, and 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Bumblebee
1/32 Bumblebee, 100% Het Albino
1/32 Bumblebee, 100% Het Axanthic
1/32 Bumblebee, 100% Het Ghost
1/32 Bumblebee, Double Het Snow (100% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Bumblebee, Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/32 Bumblebee, Double Het Sunglow (100% Het Ghost and 100% Het Albino)
1/32 Bumblebee, 100% Het Albino, 100% Het Ghost, and 100% Het Axanthic

Labeled as:
1/4 Normal, 50% Het Albino, 50% Het Axanthic, and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Spider, 50% Het Albino, 50% Het Axanthic, and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Pastel, 50% Het Albino, 50% Het Axanthic, and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Bumblebee, 50% Het Albino, 50% Het Axanthic, and 50% Het Ghost


Spider 100% Het Albino x Pastel 100% Het Axanthic:

1/16 Normal
1/16 Normal, 100% Het Albino
1/16 Normal, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Normal, Double Het Snow (100%% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Spider
1/16 Spider, 100% Het Albino
1/16 Spider, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Spider, Double Het Snow (100%% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Pastel
1/16 Pastel, 100% Het Albino
1/16 Pastel, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Pastel, Double Het Snow (100%% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Bumblebee
1/16 Bumblebee, 100% Het Albino
1/16 Bumblebee, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Bumblebee, Double Het Snow (100%% Het Albino and 100% Het Axanthic)

Labeled as:
1/4 Normal, 50% Het Albino and 50% Het Axanthic
1/4 Spider, 50% Het Albino and 50% Het Axanthic
1/4 Pastel, 50% Het Albino and 50% Het Axanthic
1/4 Bumblebee, 50% Het Albino and 50% Het Axanthic


Spider x Pastel Double Het True Ghost (100% Het Axanthic and 100% Het Ghost):

1/16 Normal
1/16 Normal, 100% Het Ghost
1/16 Normal, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Normal, Double Het True Ghost (100%% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Spider
1/16 Spider, 100% Het Ghost
1/16 Spider, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Spider, Double Het True Ghost (100%% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Pastel
1/16 Pastel, 100% Het Ghost
1/16 Pastel, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Pastel, Double Het True Ghost (100%% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)
1/16 Bumblebee
1/16 Bumblebee, 100% Het Ghost
1/16 Bumblebee, 100% Het Axanthic
1/16 Bumblebee, Double Het True Ghost (100%% Het Ghost and 100% Het Axanthic)

Labeled as:
1/4 Normal, 50% Het Axanthic and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Spider, 50% Het Axanthic and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Pastel, 50% Het Axanthic and 50% Het Ghost
1/4 Bumblebee, 50% Het Axanthic and 50% Het Ghost


Spider x Pastel 100% Het Axanthic:

1/8 Normal
1/8 Normal, 100% Het Axanthic
1/8 Spider
1/8 Spider, 100% Het Axanthic
1/8 Pastel
1/8 Pastel, 100% Het Axanthic
1/8 Bumblebee
1/8 Bumblebee, 100% Het Axanthic

Labeled as:
1/8 Normal, 50% Het Axanthic
1/8 Spider, 50% Het Axanthic
1/8 Pastel, 50% Het Axanthic
1/8 Bumblebee, 50% Het Axanthic

Wow, my brain hurts.
As a breeder AND a customer of ball pythons, if it's not 100% het, I consider it a normal and I personally (as well as a large number of breeder friends of mine) would not pay one red cent more.

You won't find many who will pay extra for poss hets unless it's for a new recessive morph and they are trying to get in on the ground floor.
You could sell a possible het candy at a premium. A possible het hypo, not so much.

Me personally, if a hatchling is NOT 100% het for anything, I will not be marking it up by more than maybe 5%.

I've been to enough shows and seen enough 66% het this and 50% het that and possible het the other; along with the price tags to understand, most breeders only put a marginal price increase for anything other than a 100% het.

For example, I saw three pinstripes on a breeders table. One was 100% het for ghost and was priced accordingly. One was just a plain pinstripe, one was 66% het for ghost. The 66% was only a few dollars more than the plain pinstripe, because the breeder understands that 66% het means the snake might be het, or it might not.

Perhaps with a male 66% het, it would be worth a little extra, because in a year or less you can find out, but a female would require at least 2 years, maybe 3 or more before you can begin to try and prove her.

Gale

I've long found interest in the variety of attitudes to possible hets and odds in general. I think it's one of those glass half full/empty things. I'm in the minority even willing to mess with possible hets. Sure, if I could afford 100% or even visibles I would do that but in the example above even for those who could afford them I doubt you can even find 100% triple hets yet much less pastel spiders that are also 100% triple recessive hets.

Because many people seem to prefer not taking the chance on a possible het not proving the extra price for possible het is very little so I like having the chance that they will prove. So far I’ve proven het albino on both sides in a clutch where dad was 66% chance het albino and also 50% chance het Jolliff axanthic and mom was 50% chance het albino. I’ve also proven het albino in another clutch where the dad was 66% chance het albino and also 66% chance het stripe and mom was 50% chance het albino. And also het hypo in a pastel het hypo to 50% chance het hypo clutch. I’ve still got lots of possible hets to put to the test including the axanthic and stripe sides of the offspring of the above albino hits.

But many seem very set against possible hets. I think some breeders even go out of their way not to mention when an animal is possible het, perhaps not to appear as a scammer. I've for sure seen some potential show customer's eyes gloss over at the mention of any possible genes and thought I might be better not to mention them.

So, all that being said, if I was in the market for say a pastel male, I would certainly pay a little more for one from the example clutch that had the bonus 50% chance of being het axanthic and 25% of being het albino and 25% chance being het hypo. How much extra? Hard to say. Maybe with that many independent chances I might go to $100 extra. For sure $50. Not big bucks but the chance could easily double the price I would pay for a pastel male.

Also wanted to add that possible het can make the difference between which of two animals at the same price I'll buy. Once I had the chance to pick between two cinnamon males at the same price. I went with the one that was also 50% chance het hypo for the shot at producing hypo cinnamon when I breed him to the het hypo I proved. Didn't hurt that he was already breeding size but even if the sizes where reversed I would have picked the possible het hypo with most other variables being the same. Hypo cinnamon wasn't even a project I had thought much about before but I knew I wanted cinnamon and finding the cinnamon possible het hypo got me to jump.