Mojave + Mojave = Blue eyed Lucy?

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Originally Posted by coreydelong

I prefer Websters..... Dictionary.com is like Wikipedia.sta·tis·tics: noun plural but singular or plural in construction \stə-ˈtis-tiks\

Definition of STATISTICS

1: a branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data

2: a collection of quantitative data

All past tense there- straight from Merriam Webster.

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Oh the irony of the english, but there is nothing past tense in there....
The article is nice, but the statistic class I took would disagree. As odds a very much involved and a part of statistics. I wish it was easy as gathering, looking at, and showing data to people lol.

Before arguing this anymore, why is this the subject? The data I provided is not in the past, it is simply a list of all possible outcomes. I fail to see where you are going with this.

Hate to perpetuate the statistics argument here but I think I can shed some light on the math at play here, lets look at the normal x lesser and the odds of calculating getting AT LEAST one lesser in a 4 egg clutch


First, you need to define the exact question here. If looking at any 1 egg being a lesser the odds are 25% as mentioned may times.

If the question is what are the odds of getting a lesser in a clutch that is where the statistics come into play. It is true that the genetics of one egg won't have any affect on the next egg but that's not what we're talking about. What is in question here is the odds of finding at least 1 lesser in the clutch.

So for the math, lets say you have a clutch with N eggs. The probability of finding a lesser = 1 - (probability of NOT finding a lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ N). For a clutch of 4 eggs, P(1 lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ 4) = 1 - 0.42 = 58%. You can do similar calculations for the odds of finding an exact number of lessers in a clutch but the calculation isn't as simple.


Think of it like dice, roll 1 die and the odds of hitting a 6 is 1:6. If you roll 3 die though, the odds of hitting a 6 is no longer 1:6. Oddly it also isn't 1:2 as you might initially think, but that's where the above calculation comes from ;) Eggs are no different, 1 egg may be 1:4 but your chances of finding at least 1 increases as you have more eggs.



Back on topic, I'm a huge fan of the Super Mojave BELs and once I'm in a position to start breeding this will be on my shortlist of goals. I've always been a BEL fan and love the breeding options of the Super Mojave as others mentioned back on pages 1 and 2.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sullitf

Hate to perpetuate the statistics argument here but I think I can shed some light on the math at play here, lets look at the normal x lesser and the odds of calculating getting AT LEAST one lesser in a 4 egg clutch


First, you need to define the exact question here. If looking at any 1 egg being a lesser the odds are 25% as mentioned may times.

If the question is what are the odds of getting a lesser in a clutch that is where the statistics come into play. It is true that the genetics of one egg won't have any affect on the next egg but that's not what we're talking about. What is in question here is the odds of finding at least 1 lesser in the clutch.

So for the math, lets say you have a clutch with N eggs. The probability of finding a lesser = 1 - (probability of NOT finding a lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ N). For a clutch of 4 eggs, P(1 lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ 4) = 1 - 0.42 = 58%. You can do similar calculations for the odds of finding an exact number of lessers in a clutch but the calculation isn't as simple.


Think of it like dice, roll 1 die and the odds of hitting a 6 is 1:6. If you roll 3 die though, the odds of hitting a 6 is no longer 1:6. Oddly it also isn't 1:2 as you might initially think, but that's where the above calculation comes from ;) Eggs are no different, 1 egg may be 1:4 but your chances of finding at least 1 increases as you have more eggs.



Back on topic, I'm a huge fan of the Super Mojave BELs and once I'm in a position to start breeding this will be on my shortlist of goals. I've always been a BEL fan and love the breeding options of the Super Mojave as others mentioned back on pages 1 and 2.

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Thanks so much for this! I hate math so I know I couldn't explain it, but you did great!

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