morph genetic flaws?

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Too darn any many secrets!

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Just because breeders aren't willing to have open ended discussions with you on public forums doesn't mean that there are secrets. I've always been able to find out everything that I've needed to know via direct communication. You should try it.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

What if I talked to a big breeder in person today and they told me a homozygous spider had already been proven but was being kept secret in an attempt to manipulate the market price - could I tell anyone?

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Wow, you must really think the "big breeders" are idiots huh? I mean to start earlier in the thread by saying "they wouldn't have even considered the possibility of a homozygous lethal morph" and then to think if a big breeder was skilled enough to hide a super spider in order to manipulate market prices they would then be dumb enough to tell you about it's existence, you must not think too highly of them?

Ya know, I'm not too bright (thank goodness I can lift heavy things) but the one thing that I do no is that there isn't a ball python breeder on this planet that can keep a secret. They all love to brag on and show off their balls. If there is a super spider out there and you don't know about it, it's not so much because it's a secret .... it's because you're wasting your time on public forums instead of really talking to people.

Everything you could ever want to know is out there ... you're just looking in the wrong place.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

I'd rather get my info from the web and not have to worry about such questions.

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Must not want the answers all that bad then?

-adam

i think you stand a better chance of just asking them for the information. Like it has been said there are no secrets, just not enough information to make claims. If you simply called(or talked to in person) as many spider breeders that you know of and asked them some simple questions (i.e. how many spider x spider breedings have you had, how many eggs went bad in each clutch, how many of the breedings resulted in all spiders, etc), they would probably be glad to answer(although some may not want their names referenced). If a big breeder posts info on the web, questions will be asked and all the BS that KLG mentioned will arise. Thats why no one is going to do so. If I had the time and the connections, I would do this myself just to find out the info (because I like to know things). I do this kinda stuff all day, everyday. Gather data, analyze, draw conclusions.

My suggestion: Make a simple survey of the information that you need (leave out all the BS about theories, ideas and such.... just ask simple yes or no...and number questions). E-mail, mail or conduct by phone this survey to as many breeders as possible. And wait to see how many responces you get. If you get more than 75% responce to your survey and a wide data range, your good. Send me the data and I will perform all the statistical analysis you want or you can do it yourself.

Ahhh ... Now that's what I'm talking about ... REAL science! .... great post Daniel!

-adam

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Wow, you must really think the "big breeders" are idiots huh?

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I think that big breeders are just like any other group of people. Just like some newbies can understand challenging theories and apparently some don't I think there are some big breeders out there with little interest or understanding of the finer points of genetics. Sure there may be a bias for intelligence allowing them to become "big breeders" but hard work, persistence, starting early in the industry, funding, and just plain luck are also important factors in who the big breeders are today. I think you put too much distance between your potential customers who can't understand the implications of homozygous lethal (which I think I have spelled out in all or almost all threads) and your big breeder peers. People are people and some of today's newbie customers will be tomorrow’s big breeders. Sure they will have more experience by then and no doubt have learned a lot but they will not have all become geniuses along the way and that isn't a requirement to become a big breeder either.

I'll have to think about the survey idea. Somehow I doubt I would get more answers from people in the know than on the forums but perhaps the anonymity angle would improve participation (but would it hurt accuracy?). However, unless they where willing to let me then share the totals publicly (with no names) I wouldn't really want to know. I've already made up my mind that I'll get a spider as soon as I can afford one regardless of if they are homozygous lethal or not. I want to either prove or disprove the homozygous lethal theory as a mater of public record for all potential spider breeders, not just for my own information.

The explanation I was offered for why the breeder with the alleged proven homozygous spider (not the breeder I was talking to – and that breeder called me by the way, I don’t make a habit of calling breeders when I don’t have money to buy something) wasn’t disclosing its existence publicly was that if it was know that a breeder had a homozygous spider the estimates of that breeder’s for sale stock would increase and they would be offered lower prices with the assumption that they would take it due to the volume they needed to sell. Perhaps this thinking is why many breeders don’t list numbers of individual snakes for sale but only the types (I was never sure if it was a secrecy issue or just the mechanics of keeping an up to date available list). While I trust the breeder I was talking to and that breeder considered the information from a reliable (but not disclosed to me) source I’m not sure I can buy into it. I have trouble understanding the thinking in not disclosing the existence of a homozygous spider if it had been proven by producing say 30 only spider offspring. You could have produced just as many spiders from two spider males to twice as many normal females (or perhaps you wouldn’t even need two males). The confirmation of a homozygous spider should help the relative price of female spiders since they are essential to create the homozygous spider. And it would totally put to rest the lethal homozygous theory which apparently is confusing newbies (potential spider customers) into thinking spiders will drop dead.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

I think that big breeders are just like any other group of people.

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I couldn’t disagree more. I speak with a small handful of big breeders on a regular basis, and I’m even fortunate enough to consider some of them friends. I can tell you unequivocally that I would not consider a single one “just like any other group of people” …. Almost all of them are very sharp, highly motivated individuals that seem almost desperate to learn everything they can about the animals that they dedicate their lives to as well as graciously willing to share that information with anyone that will listen. Most can quote Klug and Cummings verbatim and keep dog eared, highlighted stacks of genetics texts at arms reach in their offices (or next to the porcelain throne in at least one instance ;)). Caring for 500, 800, or 1000+ ball pythons as well as an additional 500 – 700 hatchlings each season is not a regular 9 – 5 job like someone from any other group of people would have. It’s a commitment to a passion that fuels a person from somewhere that many people will never know … I think you do them an incredible disservice by assuming that they are “just like any other group of people” or need you to help them consider the notion of homozygous lethal as being a possibility.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Just like some newbies can understand challenging theories and apparently some don't I think there are some big breeders out there with little interest or understanding of the finer points of genetics.

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Each week on average when I’m not promoting animals for sale, I speak with roughly 6 – 10 new “ball python people” that have questions about availability, morphs, breeding, etc. When I’m actively selling animals, it can easily be 5 times that number. My experience in dealing with those people is that the concepts of Punnets square and Mendelian theory is brand spanking new to 85% of them. One of the most common questions that I get is “Will I get albinos if I breed my 50% het albino male to a … “ [inserted the word normal or the morph of your choice here]. Now obviously, eventually these people will get a handle on the basics and then may or may not move on to more advanced genetic concepts. Until then, reading words like “homozygous lethal spiders” strikes a fear into them that you obviously don’t see for yourself.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

I think you put too much distance between your potential customers who can't understand the implications of homozygous lethal (which I think I have spelled out in all or almost all threads) and your big breeder peers.

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And I think that you spend way too much time in the great big vacuum of society that it the Internet and less time talking with real people one on one to determine where any given groups level of understanding actually is. There are real people out there reading forums, interested in ball pythons that have jobs, kids, lawns, taxes, oil changes, and very little time to spend actually researching things on their own. They have a hard time checking in on an Internet forum each week and figuring out who’s credible and who’s not as well as what’s factual, what’s theory, and what’s complete garbage. For these people sometimes all of that crap (can I say that here??) gets blurred together and lost in a sea of Internet fonts and when they decide that they want to invest in a ball python breeding project to pick up some cool animals and possibly score a few extra bucks a year for Christmas presents; words like “homozygous lethal” and “genetic defects” always seem to be the ones that they remember the most.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Somehow I doubt I would get more answers from people in the know than on the forums but perhaps the anonymity angle would improve participation (but would it hurt accuracy?).

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Well, seems to me that you haven’t made any progress at all in your quest for real numbers over the last couple of years … so how could it hurt? I would think that if you’re passionate about your convictions, it would at least be worth a shot?

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

However, unless they where willing to let me then share the totals publicly (with no names) I wouldn't really want to know.

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Well, you’ll never know unless you ask …. right?.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

I've already made up my mind that I'll get a spider as soon as I can afford one regardless of if they are homozygous lethal or not. I want to either prove or disprove the homozygous lethal theory as a mater of public record for all potential spider breeders, not just for my own information.

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I look forward to reading your findings.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

The explanation I was offered for why the breeder with the alleged proven homozygous spider (not the breeder I was talking to – and that breeder called me by the way, I don’t make a habit of calling breeders when I don’t have money to buy something) wasn’t disclosing its existence publicly was that if it was know that a breeder had a homozygous spider the estimates of that breeder’s for sale stock would increase and they would be offered lower prices with the assumption that they would take it due to the volume they needed to sell.

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Poppy-****! …. There are so many things wrong with that statement. First of all, you sell animals for what you want. If the offers you get are too low, breeders will say “Thanks but no thanks” (trust me on that one) …. Second, you need inventory to make money. Personally, I’d kill to have “too many spiders”. The idea of a super spider hurting sales is ridiculous.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Perhaps this thinking is why many breeders don’t list numbers of individual snakes for sale but only the types (I was never sure if it was a secrecy issue or just the mechanics of keeping an up to date available list).

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Do you have any idea what it takes to care for 1000+ snakes, 500 – 700 hatchlings, work on sales/marketing/shipping/export permits, and after all that attempt to keep a website current?

EDIT:
Randy, I originally ended my post with "To even suspect that it’s a secrecy issue shows a level of paranoia that you may want to talk to someone about ;)" in an attempt at a fun poke at your "secrecy theory" comment ... I know you realize that I meant no disrespect, but because of moderator objection I am now making that perfectly clear. I figure it makes better sense to explain that it was in good fun and not personal rather than delete it since others had already read it.

-adam

I also don't see the logic in keeping a proven homozygous spider secret and assumed that since one wasn't public there must not be one. The "secret for pricing reasons" theory was offered to me as a possible explanation by the breeder passing on their own trusted source information that there was a proven homozygous. I've seen rumors on forums before of a homozygous spider and tended to discount them but since this was from an upstanding big breeder in person I can't completely discount it (seeing as that method is so much more reliable than the Internet ;) even though it wasn’t a first hand account.

So, Adam, with all your personal connections and the inability of big breeders to keep secrets, are you ready to tell us if you are aware that there is a potential homozygous spider that has produced, say, more than 10 spiders bred to a normal and no normals? The odds of that happening with a het are around 1 in 1,000 so I would consider such an animal pretty darn close to proven homozygous spider. The odds of a het spider producing 30 spiders and no normals with normals is around 1 in 1 billion.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

So, Adam, with all your personal connections and the inability of big breeders to keep secrets, are you ready to tell us if you are aware that there is a potential homozygous spider that has produced, say, more than 10 spiders bred to a normal and no normals?

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I would say if I knew, but it's a question that I've never asked. ;)

-adam