Possible Hets

and that is why i said in therory(sp) in my earlier post because nothing is a gaurantee with the genetics wheel

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Statistically, it is the same odds that there or no hets in the first group of all females from one clutch as there are no hets in the second group of four females from different clutches.

Just because there are four females from one clutch, it isn't automatic that one or more of them is a het. They could still all be just normals.

50% chance for each egg ... doesn't matter if it's the same clutch or different clutches ... it's per animal.

Psychologically, it certainly "feels" better to get all the females from a single clutch because no one wants to believe that the gene would not make it to at least one of them, but it happens .... 2 years ago I bred a pastel to a normal female that laid 12 eggs, and every single baby was normal ... If that breeding had been het albino x normal, not a single one of the females in the clutch would have proved out as a het.

-adam

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i do agree with you jo if nothing else i have more females to breed

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Originally Posted by frankykeno

Of course the fun of it all is that none of them could be hets LOL. You could have spun the old genetics wheel and come up with normals all the way around. Just like breeding pastel to pastel and getting a lovely clutch of all normals, nothing is ever guaranteed but that's half the fun.

Well I figure whether a possible het proves out or not, it's still a female we are raising and breeding and there's never a loss for us in a big healthy breeding size female that produces eggs no matter what's in those eggs. Sure we'd love the albino's we want but I don't know of a lot of other situations in life where the downside is still an upside :)

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Originally Posted by gncz73

and that is why i said in therory(sp) in my earlier post because nothing is a gaurantee with the genetics wheel

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Understood. I was just pointing out that based on genetics and statistical probability, your "in theory" could apply to either the first or second group equally.

It just "feels better" to grab up all the girls from a single clutch, but in reality it makes no difference.

Hope that makes sense.

-adam

Math question... what is the probability that you would get a het from three 50% hets? or three at 66%

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Psychologically, it certainly "feels" better to get all the females from a single clutch because no one wants to believe that the gene would not make it to at least one of them, but it happens .... 2 years ago I bred a pastel to a normal female that laid 12 eggs, and every single baby was normal ... If that breeding had been het albino x normal, not a single one of the females in the clutch would have proved out as a het.

-adam

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WOW! 12 normals that sucks... But you made up for that last year, With the Lessers!!!

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Originally Posted by xdeus

Math question... what is the probability that you would get a het from three 50% hets? or three at 66%

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Off the top of my head, I think it's something like an 88% chance that there is a het in 3 50% hets, and a 96% chance that there is a het in 3 66% hets.

If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will hook me up with the correct answer. :banana:

-adam

To me, I think it'd make more sense to get one 100% het female because you'll have a darn good chance of producing a hom animal right away when you breed with your het male. And then you'll have your own possible hets to play with. But then, I'm pretty impatient, hehe!

I"m with you cass. I am super impatient!

96.3% chance that out of 3 66% you get 1

87.5% chance that out of 3 50% hets you get 1



I think? Same numbers as adam heh

Well the impatience factor isn't a factor lol. I am impatient on some things, for some reason the snakes just aren't one of them. I also really like the idea of possible hets not only budget wise but just for the pure fun and excitement of it. It's not like we aren't going to be acquiring more females anyways so why not roll the dice a bit genetically speaking (that's the only part of this hobby I want to ever gamble on lol).

I do think we'll look for the 66% though. Might be nice to nudge the odds a bit but really it either is or it ain't...LOL