Why do we say "per egg" instead of "per clutch"

This is a great thread! :gj:

Couldnt agree more with JLC..if there is a fill in the blank question in the examination like this:
"statistically you should get _______ per clutch"

I should get free marks because the question itself is wrong.

The reason people keep "focusing on" the per-egg instead of addressing the 'statistically' is because that's the issue. You're asking a circular argument in my opinion.

If you have a clutch of ten eggs, and it's a co-dom x normal breeding, you "could" say "Well, half the eggs will hatch as the co-dom".

But by the math, is that correct? Since each egg has a 50/50 shot, you have to actually calculate what the odds are that half of the eggs will fall on the one side and the other half will fall on the other side of the gene payout.

So.... what are the odds that 5 seperate eggs will get the co-dom gene and 5 eggs will get the normal gene? That's a completely different calulation in math than just saying '50/50'. It CAN work out that way, but it's not a simple "Well, half will get the co-dom gene" because you are calulating a whole different equation. You have several possibilities at this point. You could have 9 co-doms and 1 normal... 8 co-doms and 2 normals.... etc etc. If my poor abused brain is right, you have 11 possibilities in a 10 egg clutch.

0 co-dom - 10 normal
1 co-dom - 9 normal
2 co-dom - 8 normal
3 co-dom - 7 normal
4 co-dom - 6 normal
5 co-dom - 5 normal
6 co-dom - 4 normal
7 co-dom - 3 normal
8 co-dom - 2 normal
9 co-dom - 1 normal
10 co-dom - 0 normal

So technically at this point, you only have a 1 in 11 shot of producing 50/50. I think that's a 9% chance of hitting the 50/50 split exactly.

But now, what if you don't have 10 eggs? That changes the odds for the clutch. Fewer eggs/more eggs either way it changes the odds for hitting a 50/50 clutch split. So if you used 'per clutch' then you'd have to actually do math to figure out what your odds are for hitting the 50/50 split and THEN figure in the odds vs the genetics odds.

Or... you can say it's a 50/50 chance per egg, and let the brain stop churning with math and odds and numbers.

Someone can correct me if this is all bogus, but it's how I understand the odds and math.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by wolfy-hound

So technically at this point, you only have a 1 in 11 shot of producing 50/50. I think that's a 9% chance of hitting the 50/50 split exactly.

---

DING, DING, DING........winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's EXACTLY why it's far more accurate to explain that the odds are PER EGG, not per clutch.

Another example is when people commonly confuse the odds with winning the lottery. People think that by buying MORE tickets, they'll increase their odds of winning. If you have a 1:1,000,000,000 chance of winning, buying 100 tickets gives you the same odds of winning as buying 1 ticket. No matter what, the odds of winning always stay at 1,000,000,000. So, buying 1 ticket gives you 1:1,000,000,000 chance of winning, buying 100 tickets gives you 100:1,000,000,000 chance of winning.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by wolfy-hound

The reason people keep "focusing on" the per-egg instead of addressing the 'statistically' is because that's the issue. You're asking a circular argument in my opinion.

If you have a clutch of ten eggs, and it's a co-dom x normal breeding, you "could" say "Well, half the eggs will hatch as the co-dom".

But by the math, is that correct? Since each egg has a 50/50 shot, you have to actually calculate what the odds are that half of the eggs will fall on the one side and the other half will fall on the other side of the gene payout.

So.... what are the odds that 5 seperate eggs will get the co-dom gene and 5 eggs will get the normal gene? That's a completely different calulation in math than just saying '50/50'. It CAN work out that way, but it's not a simple "Well, half will get the co-dom gene" because you are calulating a whole different equation. You have several possibilities at this point. You could have 9 co-doms and 1 normal... 8 co-doms and 2 normals.... etc etc. If my poor abused brain is right, you have 11 possibilities in a 10 egg clutch.

0 co-dom - 10 normal
1 co-dom - 9 normal
2 co-dom - 8 normal
3 co-dom - 7 normal
4 co-dom - 6 normal
5 co-dom - 5 normal
6 co-dom - 4 normal
7 co-dom - 3 normal
8 co-dom - 2 normal
9 co-dom - 1 normal
10 co-dom - 0 normal

So technically at this point, you only have a 1 in 11 shot of producing 50/50. I think that's a 9% chance of hitting the 50/50 split exactly.

But now, what if you don't have 10 eggs? That changes the odds for the clutch. Fewer eggs/more eggs either way it changes the odds for hitting a 50/50 clutch split. So if you used 'per clutch' then you'd have to actually do math to figure out what your odds are for hitting the 50/50 split and THEN figure in the odds vs the genetics odds.

Or... you can say it's a 50/50 chance per egg, and let the brain stop churning with math and odds and numbers.

Someone can correct me if this is all bogus, but it's how I understand the odds and math.

---

^^This

The trouble with your understanding is 50/50, so lets look at 1 in 4 chance. 25/75 per clutch 16 eggs would always give you an average of 4 of the what ever it is. The real world doesn't work that way, a 1 in 4 chance of ___ means per egg, so in 16 egg clutch you would be lucky to get 4. It is simply not per clutch it is on an egg to egg basis.

I felt the need to jump in on this, even though it appears to me that this has been explained really well already. However, I haven't seen anyone really touch on what I was thinking when I read the original post.

The reason the chance is applied per egg is because that is what a Punnet Square defines. When you build a punnet square, what you are doing is showing what genes each parent has available to pass on the the offspring. One side shows the mother possible genes, and the other side shows the fathers possible genes. Each square within the entire process is showing the possible combinations. Therefore each square shows the outcome of what the sperm was carrying and contributed to the egg (which was carrying the other side). The punnet square is a visual way to look at what can happen to each egg.

As others have said, my description above is exactly why I just hatched 6 normals from a Sugar bred to a Normal. In the long run, as Dave stated, with a large enough sampling size, why will come very close to the statistics, but the punnet square still only applies to each egg.

I hope that wasn't too confusing.

Quote:

---

.....im trying to understand why saying "statistically you should get 50% lesser 50% normal" is wrong.....

---

How does that work with a 5 egg clutch??

How about if we add in the male female possibility?

Per egg.:rolleyes: