Is the high price market dying?

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Originally Posted by pfan151

I agree with that. I would not sell my het lavenders for almost any price. But that still does not mean het lavenders are worth the ridiculous price it would take for me to sell mine.

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Maybe not worth it to the general public, but if you did get that ridiculous price for them, they would be worth that to you and to the buyer that purchased them ... and in then end, the buyer and seller are the only two people that matter.

I believe that for every snake there is a buyer out there ... selling a snake is a matter of the seller and the buyer coming together and agreeing on terms ... anything beyond that is just background noise as far as I'm concerned. ;)

-adam

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Originally Posted by mricyfire

no one buys snakes for more than 2000$ from what I have seen, except the huge breeders

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soooo not true ... you'd be amazed at the people that spend big $$$ on snakes and they aren't big breeders ... just ordinary people.

The ball python industry is a lot larger than what you see on internet message boards.

-adam

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Originally Posted by ctrlfreq

The problem is that emotional value is a subjective measure for which there is no real equation to convert into a static dollar value. I can understand setting a price point in you mind that you would consider (I do the same with our collection), but economically speaking, the actual value can only range between the lowest accepted bid and the highest refused offer (or in short-hand, what the market will bear).

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Whether or not emotions are being used by a seller to set a value on a specific animal or item doesn't change anything I've said. "What the market will bear" applies to a range of like products...not to an individual piece. If the seller refuses to let it go for less than $xxx then that is its value. Because no one is going to be able to get it for any other price. If the seller is willing to be "talked down" to a lower price...then the value was never that high to begin with.

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The reason I advocate an animal registry and documentation of morph lineage and quality is because it woud normalize industry averages, and reduce the number of excess low quality animals that ultimately devalue the nicer specimens (for example - the drop in price of spiders in correlation with the increasing number of lower quality spiders).

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This part, I really don't get how it has any relevance to what I said at all...but thanks for sharing. ;)

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Originally Posted by mricyfire

Your right that you can charge whatever you want...but since I have been on here...no one buys snakes for more than 2000$ from what I have seen, except the huge breeders....

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I am a very small breeder and have spent well over 2k on many different snakes. You are way off on that one. Just 2005 I payed 7k for a pair of het lavenders, 3k for a pied, 2k on a pair of het caramels, and about 2k for a female lesser. All cash deals. I have a friend that just payed 7k for a few snakes a couple months ago. I have probably spent about 30k in total over the last few years and I know there are MANY others like me.

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

The ball python industry is a lot larger than what you see on internet message boards.

-adam

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Quoted for truth. For some people a glimpse at the scope of this industry would blow their mind hole. There is no one angle to look at it, or one price to go off of. :eek::eek::eek:

Justin

I'm sorry to say this but from a customer standpoint I hope it's dying.

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Originally Posted by pfan151

I am a very small breeder and have spent well over 2k on many different snakes. You are way off on that one. Just 2005 I payed 7k for a pair of het lavenders, 3k for a pied, 2k on a pair of het caramels, and about 2k for a female lesser. All cash deals. I have a friend that just payed 7k for a few snakes a couple months ago. I have probably spent about 30k in total over the last few years and I know there are MANY others like me.

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ditto for me too!

i'm just a hobbiest with a spare room, i've spent well over 2k on single animals.

people spend money on alot of different things, some are golf crazy, 30k bass boats, 25 k harley's, customs, 75k on drag cars, 15 k on home theaters, etc. for some of us it's reptiles!!:D


vaughn

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Originally Posted by N4S

I'm sorry to say this but from a customer standpoint I hope it's dying.

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And I'm sorry to say, but I resent this comment. I don't want small hobbyists like myself to get in a financial black hole because their breeding and selling prevents them from making any money, even just to support their snakes(feeding bills, racks, electricity). I don't want Ball Pythons to become like Bearded Dragons or other money-pit reptiles. I don't mind spending what money I can afford on a nice snake(morphs or hets), and have it pay for itself through breeding and selling the offspring.

Even if it does become a money pit, I'll just keep them all and not sell a single one! I want prices to stay where they are, especially from a customer's point of view, because I want a return on my investment. I just want my snakes to support themselves and possibly give me a little extra money here and there to buy that special snake that catches my eye.

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Originally Posted by JLC

If the seller refuses to let it go for less than $xxx then that is its value.

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I'm not disagreeing that the price an owner puts on the animal represents it's value to them. Economically speaking however, such an amount would not be considered a viable "actual value" should the owner decide to leverage or protect the animal's value (getting the animal insured for example). In that case it would break back down along the lines of how much does it cost to reproduce or otherwise acquire another, just like it does for your house, car, or the Van Gogh painting you might pick up on a whim at Christie's auction house.

I think a registry has been a long time coming, and I agree that one should be set up. There's always the question of 'who will run it?'
It's a lot of work to set up a registry organization. I DO think if you set it all up properly and legitimately, that people would buy into it just as they do the AKC.
The only problem I can see is this: Who determines what a high quality animal is? Purebred dogs have closed lineages. In the majority of cases, you can only do registration with bred lines, and not with simple genetic morphs. Closing a 'breed' means no more out-crossing...I don't think anyone's far enough along with any of the ball python 'breeds' to want to close the door on outcrossing yet.
What makes a spider produced by NERD higher quality than one produced by that guy down the street who just picked up a spider and bred it to a really nice import he grabbed, and got really neat looking babies? The quality of a morph is determined by its appearance, no? NERD breeds nice looking spiders, but that doesn't mean someone who picks up a less attractive spider and crosses it with a unique-looking import can't produce really good-looking spiders.

I don't think you can register 'spider' as a 'breed'. I think breeders can develop a reputation for producing a certain look in their own lines, but then what would be the point of registering them? You have people saying "I have NERD line male that I'm crossing with this ch female"...the end result isn't NERD line anymore, but does that make it lower quality? Not if it looks really spiffy.

There is no standard for what these morphs should ideally look like. That's clear in the thread on pastels, too, where you have two big lines that have a different look, and people tend to like both...some prefer one or the other, but the popularity of both is strong.

Is a spider better with a highly reduced pattern? Or maybe with a really strong and busy pattern? High white or low white? It depends on who you ask.
Stronger yellow is good? Not if you prefer them to be more orange, or more brown.
What determines the quality of a co-dominant morph? In most cases it's the result of crossing a normal with a morph. The results can vary tremendously.

Who determines quality? In my opinion, the buyer determines quality (apart from obvious issues like freedom from outright defects).
Obviously people wanted those lower cost spiders.

The price comes down because people breed the animals and produce more of them. Higher numbers available mean more competition among sellers. People aren't having trouble selling spiders--only selling them for more than buyers want to pay now.
If your spider is higher quality and worth more, than people will pay more for it. If they will not, then it ISN'T worth more, regardless of how you feel about its quality. If you're producing a higher quality animal, it has to show--buyers will decide that. They will pay more for it if it really is better.

This is not something that the people who are 'flooding the market' are doing wrong. They saw a demand, and they're supplying it. This is natural competition. Businesses generally hate competition, but I don't understand the idea that the competitors are doing wrong for competing.

In an ideal world, people would pay top dollar for your animals, preferring quality over quantity, and they would agree that your quality is better.
If they don't...frankly, they don't think your quality is better, or they never could afford them to begin with and wouldn't have bought from you anyhow.

I don't think there's any valid reason to be angry because someone else is offering something at a lower price, that's the way competition works.

If we're going to do registries for ball pythons, it will be after some lines are established that have a unique look achieved only through breeding, and those lines are then closed to outcrossing. That's going to be a long while down the road.

Im with you Becky... I dropped 5k over the past yr on morphs looking to get return on my investments... I dont plan on breeding for a couple years then gettin out... I'm 23 and plan on doing this for 10-20yrs bc I love animals and I love snakes... This is not only a hobby for me but I would also like to turn it into a successful business... I didnt just spend the last 5 yrs of my life and 25k going to college for business administration for nothing! I want to put what Ive learned into creating my own business and if I can make a hobby and a bussines become one then my college will pretty much pay for itself.

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Originally Posted by ctrlfreq

I'm not disagreeing that the price an owner puts on the animal represents it's value to them. Economically speaking however, such an amount would not be considered a viable "actual value" should the owner decide to leverage or protect the animal's value (getting the animal insured for example). In that case it would break back down along the lines of how much does it cost to reproduce or otherwise acquire another, just like it does for your house, car, or the Van Gogh painting you might pick up on a whim at Christie's auction house.

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Understood. :)

Lots of people spend lots of $ on snakes. 2k is a drop in the bucket.
A high price is very subjective. What is high to some is a bargain to others. It all depends what is high to you. A CHEAP home in southern Cali is $500,000-$600,000. I'm sure people in other parts of the country might feel very differently. Unless you go to Manhattan, N.Y. where a million is dirt cheap. I have lived in both so 2k on a snake doesn't faze me a bit.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

The only problem I can see is this: Who determines what a high quality animal is?

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That's a great question, especially since the range, quality-wise, is all over the board right now (both on what we accept as defining a "quality" animal, and then the literal quality of the animal in terms of health and care).

Second to this is the mindset behind the breeding. Are we looking to create perfect specimens, or are we looking to create designer animals? I think the two must be mutually exclusive, since the designer approach, by nature, seeks to modify the animals as much as possible by packing in as many possible morphs as possible.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

Purebred dogs have closed lineages. In the majority of cases, you can only do registration with bred lines, and not with simple genetic morphs.

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I would imagine because of this particular requirement that the registry, by necessity, would have to start with the largest breeders declaring their bloodlines, and then closing the system to animals not of these lineages. Sure, you could breed a registered animal to a non-registered animal and have beautiful designer or pet quality animals, but like out-crossing registered and non-registered dogs, the offspring wouldn't be eligible.

As for the "breeds", I think BPs would more accurately be analogized to a class of dogs (toy breeds for example) than to any particular breed with it's few possible color and pattern combinations.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

What makes a spider produced by NERD higher quality than one produced by that guy down the street

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Right now, nothing. Within the context of a system of registered animals, it would be the quality garnered from knowing the entire history of the animal and it's ancestors (ie, things like disease and germ-line mutations that would be relative unknowns in capitve hatched and wild caught animals).

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

The quality of a morph is determined by its appearance, no?

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Now yes, but in a tracked system, other traits such as the infamous spider spin would also come into account. Like with dogs, I think the more high-level information we track, the more we will understand the animals, and more concise definitions as to what makes a quality animal would surface.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

There is no standard for what these morphs should ideally look like.

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This is probably the largest crux of the entire registry concept, but one that can obviously be overcome, although I'm willing to bet that it won't happen without causing a lot of people to become angry with the results. That said, if it formalizes the industry and normalizes prices, I can't imagine it's a bad thing in the long run.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

This is not something that the people who are 'flooding the market' are doing wrong. They saw a demand, and they're supplying it. This is natural competition.

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I agree, however the same could be said about the boom in the late '90s that resulted in the dot-com boom. Likewise, I see the BP industry inflating with literally thousands of small breeders getting in to capitalize on the demand that will, in many cases, very likely disappear before they've recouped their costs. Competition is good, but an industry without a baseline to make long-term business decisions on (ie, which morph should I purchase, which projects should I pursue) will ultimately see a number of fledgling businesses going under due not only to a lack of planning, but an inability to do so.

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

I don't think there's any valid reason to be angry because someone else is offering something at a lower price, that's the way competition works.

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This one I'm up in the air on, specifically because we're dealing with animals, and if the prices are significantly lower than average, there is a fair expectation that something about their business is as well (ie, low-balling on the fixed costs associated with husbandry).

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Originally Posted by ctrlfreq

Huge, very insightful post...

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That is very well thought out. So get with it... I nominate you the president of the new oversight organization!

Justin

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Maybe not worth it to the general public, but if you did get that ridiculous price for them, they would be worth that to you and to the buyer that purchased them ... and in then end, the buyer and seller are the only two people that matter.

I believe that for every snake there is a buyer out there ... selling a snake is a matter of the seller and the buyer coming together and agreeing on terms ... anything beyond that is just background noise as far as I'm concerned. ;)

-adam

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I think this is within reason...i know i can't sell my normal for 750$ no matter how hard i tried.

SO what I am trying to say is there is a limit...which correlates to the value statement i made earlier

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

soooo not true ... you'd be amazed at the people that spend big $$$ on snakes and they aren't big breeders ... just ordinary people.

The ball python industry is a lot larger than what you see on internet message boards.

-adam

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Yea i will agree i did understate that...hell im about to blow that kind of money on a fire ball.

I shoulda said in the $10,000(per snake) and up range.

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Originally Posted by pfan151

I am a very small breeder and have spent well over 2k on many different snakes. You are way off on that one. Just 2005 I payed 7k for a pair of het lavenders, 3k for a pied, 2k on a pair of het caramels, and about 2k for a female lesser. All cash deals. I have a friend that just payed 7k for a few snakes a couple months ago. I have probably spent about 30k in total over the last few years and I know there are MANY others like me.

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and you my friend....well ur BALLIN!!!

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Originally Posted by mricyfire

I think this is within reason...i know i can't sell my normal for 750$ no matter how hard i tried.

SO what I am trying to say is there is a limit...which correlates to the value statement i made earlier

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What's "reasonable" to one, may or may not be reasonable to another ... some people "know" that they can't climb Mt. Everest no matter how hard they try ... but others have what it takes.

I guess I just look at the world differently than some.

-adam

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Originally Posted by WingedWolfPsion

I think a registry has been a long time coming, and I agree that one should be set up. There's always the question of 'who will run it?'
It's a lot of work to set up a registry organization. I DO think if you set it all up properly and legitimately, that people would buy into it just as they do the AKC.
The only problem I can see is this: Who determines what a high quality animal is? Purebred dogs have closed lineages. In the majority of cases, you can only do registration with bred lines, and not with simple genetic morphs. Closing a 'breed' means no more out-crossing...I don't think anyone's far enough along with any of the ball python 'breeds' to want to close the door on outcrossing yet.
What makes a spider produced by NERD higher quality than one produced by that guy down the street who just picked up a spider and bred it to a really nice import he grabbed, and got really neat looking babies? The quality of a morph is determined by its appearance, no? NERD breeds nice looking spiders, but that doesn't mean someone who picks up a less attractive spider and crosses it with a unique-looking import can't produce really good-looking spiders.

I don't think you can register 'spider' as a 'breed'. I think breeders can develop a reputation for producing a certain look in their own lines, but then what would be the point of registering them? You have people saying "I have NERD line male that I'm crossing with this ch female"...the end result isn't NERD line anymore, but does that make it lower quality? Not if it looks really spiffy.

There is no standard for what these morphs should ideally look like. That's clear in the thread on pastels, too, where you have two big lines that have a different look, and people tend to like both...some prefer one or the other, but the popularity of both is strong.

Is a spider better with a highly reduced pattern? Or maybe with a really strong and busy pattern? High white or low white? It depends on who you ask.
Stronger yellow is good? Not if you prefer them to be more orange, or more brown.
What determines the quality of a co-dominant morph? In most cases it's the result of crossing a normal with a morph. The results can vary tremendously.

Who determines quality? In my opinion, the buyer determines quality (apart from obvious issues like freedom from outright defects).
Obviously people wanted those lower cost spiders.

The price comes down because people breed the animals and produce more of them. Higher numbers available mean more competition among sellers. People aren't having trouble selling spiders--only selling them for more than buyers want to pay now.
If your spider is higher quality and worth more, than people will pay more for it. If they will not, then it ISN'T worth more, regardless of how you feel about its quality. If you're producing a higher quality animal, it has to show--buyers will decide that. They will pay more for it if it really is better.

This is not something that the people who are 'flooding the market' are doing wrong. They saw a demand, and they're supplying it. This is natural competition. Businesses generally hate competition, but I don't understand the idea that the competitors are doing wrong for competing.

In an ideal world, people would pay top dollar for your animals, preferring quality over quantity, and they would agree that your quality is better.
If they don't...frankly, they don't think your quality is better, or they never could afford them to begin with and wouldn't have bought from you anyhow.

I don't think there's any valid reason to be angry because someone else is offering something at a lower price, that's the way competition works.

If we're going to do registries for ball pythons, it will be after some lines are established that have a unique look achieved only through breeding, and those lines are then closed to outcrossing. That's going to be a long while down the road.

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x2
:sweeet:

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Originally Posted by mricyfire

I shoulda said in the $10,000(per snake) and up range.

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Even at 10K, you'd still be amazed ... I was just on the phone with a friend not 15 minutes ago that dropped 12k on a single ball python this morning ... and he's never posted on an internet message board and never been to a reptile show ... he likes to say the he's "no one of consequence" ... the big sales happen more than you think. ;)

-adam

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Originally Posted by jkobylka

That is very well thought out. So get with it... I nominate you the president of the new oversight organization!

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Is this like red rover? Can I draft people into service?

One thing about a registry... it does not have to be a closed registry.

It could be set up such that anyone could register a snake with an unknown pedigree. Maybe it was WC or CH, maybe it was a rescue and they just don't know the history. It doesn't matter. The important thing is that any offpsring it produced would have a known pedigree, although only one that goes back a single generation, at least on one side.

Other snakes would (eventually) have pedigrees that go back many, many generations. If you accidently produced an axanthic from breeding 2 "normals" together, you could look at their pedigree and see that way back, they had VPI axanthic in their line, so you'd know which line to cross it with. Other things, such as lines of spiders that spin a lot, or ones that don't, would become apparent.

I believe this kind of thing has been done before, with appaloosa horses. Originally (and possibly still? I'm not sure) any horse that showed certain traits that make it an appaloosa was allowed to be registered. Having an open registry apparently worked out ok for appaloosa breeders, it could work for BPs as well.

Also, some registries allow for half-breeds to be registered. So even if your WC or CH can't be registered, their offspring can be. Then the next generation would be registered as being 3/4 "purebred". And so on. I believe that registries that allow this kind of registration usually have a point where an animal is considered "purebred", but examination of the pedigree would reveal it is actually only 31/32 "purebred" (or where ever the break-off point is). This is another way to allow new blood.

So if a BP registry was not set up as a closed registry, we could be a lot closer to ready for a registry.

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Originally Posted by ctrlfreq

Right now, nothing. Within the context of a system of registered animals, it would be the quality garnered from knowing the entire history of the animal and it's ancestors (ie, things like disease and germ-line mutations that would be relative unknowns in capitve hatched and wild caught animals).



Now yes, but in a tracked system, other traits such as the infamous spider spin would also come into account. Like with dogs, I think the more high-level information we track, the more we will understand the animals, and more concise definitions as to what makes a quality animal would surface.

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This really is the best possible justification for a registry that I have seen. It allows for a lot more flexibility than, say, the dog and cat registries, while offering substantial benefits to people who choose to register their animals.

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Originally Posted by SatanicIntention

And I'm sorry to say, but I resent this comment. I don't want small hobbyists like myself to get in a financial black hole because their breeding and selling prevents them from making any money, even just to support their snakes(feeding bills, racks, electricity). I don't want Ball Pythons to become like Bearded Dragons or other money-pit reptiles. I don't mind spending what money I can afford on a nice snake(morphs or hets), and have it pay for itself through breeding and selling the offspring.

Even if it does become a money pit, I'll just keep them all and not sell a single one! I want prices to stay where they are, especially from a customer's point of view, because I want a return on my investment. I just want my snakes to support themselves and possibly give me a little extra money here and there to buy that special snake that catches my eye.

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I can understand where you're coming from, but I can also understand where N4S is coming from, too. Yes it would be nice to make back your investment, and at the very least, have breeding be able to support your hobby (pay for racks, rats, etc) so that it's at a minimum a wash for you as far as money goes. But I always tell people when these conversations come up that you can hope for that, but don't expect it to happen.

You may make all your money back, or it may be a money pit. That's why I always tell people they should only buy snakes that they can afford to make nothing off of as it could very well happen. Don't get me wrong, as a small breeder of cornsnakes for a long time, I completely understand where you're coming from - it's nice to have years where your net out of pocket expenses are zero and you even make a little bit extra.

That being said, I also am sympathetic to where N4S is coming from. Not everyone has $2K to drop on an animal, yet doesn't mean they don't still want that animal. I've been eyeing bumble bees for a while ever since I laid eyes on one. At the time they were wayyyyyy too expensive; even a pastel and spider at the time were way out of my price range, so I had to wait until I could finally afford the ingredients. So yeah, I'm glad they came down in price. And I'm glad that other morphs are coming down in price, too. It means that more and more of all those awesome morphs are becoming more avaialbe to more people. And I think that is a good thing.

This hobby shouldn't be accessible for only people with tons of money. Prices will continue to fall, as they should and I'm glad that they are. What I do not want to see is a crash in the market (which I doubt will happen). Big difference between the two.

How can you say you want prices to go down but you dont want a market crash? If the market continues based on this years drop in price the only market theres going to be is for 3-4-5 combo morphs... Its already so cheap to make a lucy which right now runs for 4-5k ... In a yr or two lucys are going to be like $1000 because everyone and their brother has a pair of mojaves they got for 750$. People arnt going to be willing to pay much for a single combo morph bc you can make it for cheaper.I like the registry system because it helps set apart the people who are serious in the business and the joe scmoe whose just trying to make money.

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Originally Posted by JoshJP7

How can you say you want prices to go down but you dont want a market crash?

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Ummmm, easy. Prices are going to go down; more supply = lower prices. And I think that that is a good thing. With respect to Lucy's they should go down in price next year a bit; what shouldn't happen is Lucy's drop to $1k next year or less; that would be a crash and wouldn't be good.

People are living a pipe dream if they expect to prices to stay high forever; and I disagree with people who want prices to stay high forever.

I heard a ball python was sold for 20 g's this year at daytona , think about it without telling you how much I make a year I can easily admit that if I made 4 times what I make now I would easily have a $30,000 dollar collection cause it's what I love. I do alright and in the last 2 yr's I've spent about 6,000 on my collection. Isn't it the same with car's , who are we to tell an athlete or doctor they paid too much for a lamborghini?

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Originally Posted by Emilio

Isn't it the same with car's , who are we to tell an athlete or doctor they paid too much for a lamborghini?

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I don't think anyone is saying that it's spending too much, but if Lamborghini's were produced in the numbers that BMW's were, for instance, their price would drop as they wouldn't be so rare; and I think that's the point of ball python prices dropping.

I could care less how much someone spends on a bp. If they want to drop $20k on an animal; more power to them.

I dont see how your explanation of your statement really explains how you can want one but dont see how it leads to the other... If people keep dropping prices to the extreme that happened this yr the market is going to be flooded... Soon theres going to be more breeders than buyers and theres your market crash... some morphs lost 500$ in market price in a single season... That drop is going to impact every combo moprh made with this base morph. I dont think prices should stay high forever but there needs to be a reationship between price of a base morph and what it makes. Too many small breeders arnt willing to hold onto their stock for long and just drop the price to get em out of the door.

Why cant there be lamborgini like balls that hold their value for many many years? I know as a breeder if/when I come up with something new Im not going to be running around telling people what made it so they can do the same.... Its the same thing as a patent... Prevents others from getting rich off of your hard work... with all that said this is why I say 3-4-5 combo morphs are going to be the future of BPs

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Originally Posted by SatanicIntention

And I'm sorry to say, but I resent this comment. I don't want small hobbyists like myself to get in a financial black hole because their breeding and selling prevents them from making any money, even just to support their snakes(feeding bills, racks, electricity). I don't want Ball Pythons to become like Bearded Dragons or other money-pit reptiles. I don't mind spending what money I can afford on a nice snake(morphs or hets), and have it pay for itself through breeding and selling the offspring.

Even if it does become a money pit, I'll just keep them all and not sell a single one! I want prices to stay where they are, especially from a customer's point of view, because I want a return on my investment. I just want my snakes to support themselves and possibly give me a little extra money here and there to buy that special snake that catches my eye.

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I have to say that I completely agree. I'm several years from breeding...and by no means am I expecting to make a profit...but it would be nice to get back some of my investment so that I can buy the next cool morph. :)

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Originally Posted by JoshJP7

I dont see how your explanation of your statement really explains how you can want one but dont see how it leads to the other... If people keep dropping prices to the extreme that happened this yr the market is going to be flooded... Soon theres going to be more breeders than buyers and theres your market crash... some morphs lost 500$ in market price in a single season... That drop is going to impact every combo moprh made with this base morph. I dont think prices should stay high forever but there needs to be a reationship between price of a base morph and what it makes. Too many small breeders arnt willing to hold onto their stock for long and just drop the price to get em out of the door.

Why cant there be lamborgini like balls that hold their value for many many years? I know as a breeder if/when I come up with something new Im not going to be running around telling people what made it so they can do the same.... Its the same thing as a patent... Prevents others from getting rich off of your hard work... with all that said this is why I say 3-4-5 combo morphs are going to be the future of BPs

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But prices cuts are going to happen. Lets say a big breeder with a well known rep, like Adam from 8-ball, sells morph A for $1000. If I also am selling morph A, I'll have to charge a little less to be able to compete. But if I'm selling for a little less, then someone else like me will come along and sell for even less, and so on.

The thing that will keep ball python prices from going too low is that some of the morph combos don't breed true with every generation. If I breed two albinos together, then I'm going to get all albinos. But if I breed a bumble bee together, there's no guarantee I'll get bumble bees. So that will keep the prices from going too low.

And I still stand by what I said earlier of prices dropping being an ok thing. It makes more morphs available to more people, which is good for the hobby. But as you say, if there comes a point where there are more breeders than buyers, then you're in trouble. But I don't see that happening.

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Originally Posted by JoshJP7

I dont see how your explanation of your statement really explains how you can want one but dont see how it leads to the other... If people keep dropping prices to the extreme that happened this yr the market is going to be flooded... Soon theres going to be more breeders than buyers and theres your market crash...

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The market is dropping significantly, but saying a market crash is eminent is kind of silly.

IMHO, the market is going to substantially increase in sales. The fall in prices are going to open the market to not just breeders and hobbyiest, but Joe Blow that likes snakes. The fall in prices of Pastels is a perfect example. I have a Graziani. The price on Pastels has fallen to $100 in some places. Now I personally won't sell a Pastel for less than $200. If they don't sell, that's cool with me :).

The cost of keeping these animals is extremely low. Even if you are paying $1.50 per rat, the total cost of products (for me) has been under $100 per animal per year. Even if you are only producing an average of 2 Pastels per year, you're (at the very least) going to pay your costs.

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some morphs lost 500$ in market price in a single season... That drop is going to impact every combo moprh made with this base morph. I dont think prices should stay high forever but there needs to be a reationship between price of a base morph and what it makes. Too many small breeders arnt willing to hold onto their stock for long and just drop the price to get em out of the door.

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That just doesn't make ANY sense. There is no correlation between what a morph can make when breed to other morphs. The cost of a combo is based entirely on the cost of the different morphs used to make them.

To go back to my previous example, one member here sold a clutch of male Graz Pastels for $250 shipped. Each one of the buyers COULD have purchased any of those anywhere else for half that. But they still sold. That tells me that the small breeders dumping on the market isn't having the impact you think it is.

I've said it a MILLION times, but Fauna and KS don't set market prices. Take a look at the big breeders sites to get an idea. You think Ralph or Kara and Kevin are having problems with sales? I doubt it. And they certainly aren't selling animals 25% below market (at least, if they are, I would like to know :P).

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Why cant there be lamborgini like balls that hold their value for many many years?

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Now that is funny. Lamborgini's don't hold their value, unless they are limited production. Honda and Toyota lead the auto manufactorers for vehicles that retain their value.

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I know as a breeder if/when I come up with something new Im not going to be running around telling people what made it so they can do the same.... Its the same thing as a patent... Prevents others from getting rich off of your hard work... with all that said this is why I say 3-4-5 combo morphs are going to be the future of BPs

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Well I still think recessive morphs are the future. Codoms are flooding the market because they are so easy to make. I'm willing to bet, next year, Albinos hold a value higher than Lessers. That really says something... codom morphs, on their own and without a recessive gene in there somewhere, simply aren't going to hold their value.

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Originally Posted by PigsnPythons

I have to say that I completely agree. I'm several years from breeding...and by no means am I expecting to make a profit...but it would be nice to get back some of my investment so that I can buy the next cool morph. :)

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Absolutely it would be great to get some money back. But you can't get into herps with the intention or expectations of ever getting your money back. There are just too many things that can happen to prevent that.

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Originally Posted by blueapplepaste

But prices cuts are going to happen. Lets say a big breeder with a well known rep, like Adam from 8-ball, sells morph A for $1000. If I also am selling morph A, I'll have to charge a little less to be able to compete. But if I'm selling for a little less, then someone else like me will come along and sell for even less, and so on.

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I disagree. New companies pop up in every industry. Whether it be ball pythons or dairy farms. And selling cheaper isn't the only method to make sales.

Why should I set my prices lower than Adam? If we are both selling piebalds, his inventory is still limited. Is he going to sell them before I do? Probably. But he's probably going to sell them before I do regardless of price... namely, because his reputation makes him worth the extra few bucks. So once he sells out, I'm now LOSING out because I set my prices cheaper to compete, when in reality, I'm not going to compete anyway.

Of course, my perspective on this isn't about making the most money possible, or getting rid of animals as quickly as I can. Maybe my Piebald won't sell for a year, but I'm willing to bet a yearling Piebald will, when it's only $50 bucks more than a baby.

I keep ball pythons because I love them. If I honestly thought I was going to get rich doing this, I wouldn't be in college ;).

we could all just kill the small breeders then only the big companies will remain!!!


no but really. I'm pretty new to the BP scene so im not 100% sure on past prices to current prices. i wish i could add some crazy good insight to this epic thread but i cant really. i agree with the statement made about recessive genes being able to hold value over a co-dom. you take a spider and mate it with 10 normals and you get a boat load of spiders! (not to mention a drained male spider!)

:rockon:

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Originally Posted by Moriar

we could all just kill the small breeders then only the big companies will remain!!!


no but really. I'm pretty new to the BP scene so im not 100% sure on past prices to current prices. i wish i could add some crazy good insight to this epic thread but i cant really. i agree with the statement made about recessive genes being able to hold value over a co-dom. you take a spider and mate it with 10 normals and you get a boat load of spiders! (not to mention a drained male spider!)

:rockon:

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the point you have made is EXACTLY the reason why co-dom prices go through the floor: they are too easy to produce. flood in supply=drastic drop in prices.

I just picked up a het albino male at the breeder expo for $35. Had to brag. :)
(And yes, the breeder has a decent rep, and the snake appears healthy).