Nearing the end of guaranteed genetics. What will it mean to you?

As a breeder who owns both three and four gene animals I can tell you I believe the future is not in how many genes you can cram into an animal. Leave that to the breeders who want to maximize their potential and don't care what the breeder looks like as long as it throws what he or she wants to sell. (i.e. I would love to own a super pastel, super enchi, homozygous spider male). Would he look like much.? Don't know and don't care. He would get five of the biggest female normals I have so he could produce 40 to 50 "Pastel Stinger Bee's.
The true long term market will always be in the really nice looking animals whether they are single gene or have 15 genes in them. Also remember that unless someone comes up with some way to manipulate the odds, when you calculate the odds of producing a 5 or more gene animal you soon discover that they will remain rare compared with the one and two gene stuff.
P.S. you won't find them on our web site we don't show everything we own...

I think that you guys that are saying the problem is way off because only the big dogs are breeding the combo morphs are crazy. Even a male and a female, both with only two morphs, can create the problem I am talking about when bred together.

Using the example above, Lets say that you pair a pewter female with a spinner male. One of your male hatchlings looks really cool. You are almost certain that it is a pewter spinner, but you honestly arent sure. It could also be a really nice cinnamon spinner that is nice and light in color because it is just a hatchling, and your spinner lines are pretty light in color themselves... and you know how cinnamons sometimes have crazy influence on colors when paired with other morphs. It could also be a pewter pinstripe that has a few lines that could be a spider influence but you just don't know for sure becaue the cinnamon influence complicates the pattern so much. Now that you think about it, it could even be a pewter spider. There are definately lines in the pattern that look like a pinstripe influence, but you certainly wouldn't bet your life on it considering what a spider sometimes looks like with a cinnamon influence.

Judging by todays average combo prices, If it were a known 3 morph snake like the cinnamon spinner, pewter pinstripe, or pewter spider, it would fetch about $1,300 give or take. But if it were in fact a known 4 morph snake like the pewter spinner, then it would fetch on average $1,000 more bringing the price up to about $2,300 give or take.

So where do you price it? What do you call it when you price it? Keep in mind that traditionally anyone paying for a morph (regardless of 1, 2, 3, 4 + morphs) snake gets guaranteed genetics. That means if the snake ends up proving to be less then what it was sold as, the buyer can seek compensation or refund from the breeder.

I guarantee you that if you do call it something along the lines of "Pewter Pinstripe with possible Spider" you will get nowhere near the $2,300 give or take. If you are lucky you would probably get $1,400 -$1,500 at best.

What, exactly, are you looking for here, Mike? Answers? Solutions to a problem that many people don't perceive as a problem? Just someone to agree with you that there IS a problem?

The initial question in the thread title is "What will it mean to YOU?" Lots of us gave you the answer to that question. But you keep trying to bring it around so that everyone discusses the issue from the perspective of what it means to Mike Cavanaugh.

Yes....it IS certainly feasible that as the years continue to roll by, the more mainstream ball python market will have multi-gene animals that are difficult to say for certainty exactly which gene is there. Quite plausible.

So......?

Are we supposed to stop trying to breed multi-gene animals? How would you get people to do that?

Should breeders hold onto "mystery" animals until they've bred enough clutches to prove out every single possible gene?

Convince someone to foot the bill for genetic mapping of ball pythons and then have every morph tested and proven that way?

Or should breeders just be honest as they represent each animal for sale? Of course, maybe you can get a few more dollars IF you have 100% certainty of each of the "five" genes in one snake....so you drop your price some if you're not sure the pinstripe gene is being expressed or not. Is that such an evil scenario?

Will some breeders intentionally exaggerate the genes of their animals? Sure....but that's not exactly a new tactic and we should always be on guard for slimey sales tactics and outright scammers.

Each individual business already sets their OWN standards and procedures for guaranteeing health, sex, and the genetics of an animal. The questionable multi-gene animals just adds another wrinkle in that contract that they must establish between themselves and their customers. The better and more secure a customer feels in the contract they have with the breeder....the better that breeder's business will be. How YOU choose to make your customers feel secure in the genetics of the snakes you produce is up to you.

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Originally Posted by JLC

What, exactly, are you looking for here, Mike? Answers? Solutions to a problem that many people don't perceive as a problem? Just someone to agree with you that there IS a problem?

The initial question in the thread title is "What will it mean to YOU?" Lots of us gave you the answer to that question. But you keep trying to bring it around so that everyone discusses the issue from the perspective of what it means to Mike Cavanaugh.

Yes....it IS certainly feasible that as the years continue to roll by, the more mainstream ball python market will have multi-gene animals that are difficult to say for certainty exactly which gene is there. Quite plausible.

So......?

Are we supposed to stop trying to breed multi-gene animals? How would you get people to do that?

Should breeders hold onto "mystery" animals until they've bred enough clutches to prove out every single possible gene?

Convince someone to foot the bill for genetic mapping of ball pythons and then have every morph tested and proven that way?

Or should breeders just be honest as they represent each animal for sale? Of course, maybe you can get a few more dollars IF you have 100% certainty of each of the "five" genes in one snake....so you drop your price some if you're not sure the pinstripe gene is being expressed or not. Is that such an evil scenario?

Will some breeders intentionally exaggerate the genes of their animals? Sure....but that's not exactly a new tactic and we should always be on guard for slimey sales tactics and outright scammers.

Each individual business already sets their OWN standards and procedures for guaranteeing health, sex, and the genetics of an animal. The questionable multi-gene animals just adds another wrinkle in that contract that they must establish between themselves and their customers. The better and more secure a customer feels in the contract they have with the breeder....the better that breeder's business will be. How YOU choose to make your customers feel secure in the genetics of the snakes you produce is up to you.

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:bow::bow::bow::bow:

Couldn't have said it better myself. What it means to ME = non-issue. You said everything I wasn't able to accurately express.

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Originally Posted by JLC

What, exactly, are you looking for here, Mike? Answers? Solutions to a problem that many people don't perceive as a problem? Just someone to agree with you that there IS a problem?

The initial question in the thread title is "What will it mean to YOU?" Lots of us gave you the answer to that question. But you keep trying to bring it around so that everyone discusses the issue from the perspective of what it means to Mike Cavanaugh.

Yes....it IS certainly feasible that as the years continue to roll by, the more mainstream ball python market will have multi-gene animals that are difficult to say for certainty exactly which gene is there. Quite plausible.

So......?

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If your aren't interested in the conversation then PLEASE, just move on. Read something else. Why do you feel the need to call me out in such a way?

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Originally Posted by Mike Cavanaugh

If your aren't interested in the conversation then PLEASE, just move on. Read something else. Why do you feel the need to call me out in such a way?

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I'm not TRYING to be negative. Heck, I even said earlier than I find the topic a very interesting one to consider. I'm glad you brought it up. But now, I'm just trying to figure out what YOU want out of the conversation. And I mean it sincerely. What, exactly, are you trying to discuss here? Because "What it means to me" isn't really what you're interested in, apparently.

So what is it? Do you want to talk about ways a breeder should write his TOS to protect both himself and his customers as best as he can? That's a good topic, too. An excellent one, in fact. Do you want to see if anyone has any ideas about how best to positively identify mystery animals? Do you want to worry about the sky falling? Or....what?

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Originally Posted by JLC

Do you want to talk about ways a breeder should write his TOS to protect both himself and his customers as best as he can? That's a good topic, too. An excellent one, in fact. Do you want to see if anyone has any ideas about how best to positively identify mystery animals?

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Sure.

Given the scenario I gave, what would you call the snake? Would you price it based on 3 morphs or 4 morphs? Obviously beauty is in the eye of the beholder and an animal is worth whatever someone is willing to sell it for that someone else is willing to buy it for. But that said, there is a $1,000 price difference between the 3 morph animal and the 4 morph animal most of the time... If you are pretty sure that it is the 4 morph, but honestly dont know for sure, what would you do?

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Originally Posted by Mike Cavanaugh

Sure.

Given the scenario I gave, what would you call the snake? Would you price it based on 3 morphs or 4 morphs? Obviously beauty is in the eye of the beholder and an animal is worth whatever someone is willing to sell it for that someone else is willing to buy it for. But that said, there is a $1,000 price difference between the 3 morph animal and the 4 morph animal most of the time... If you are pretty sure that it is the 4 morph, but honestly dont know for sure, what would you do?

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I believe I'd have to set some sort of personal scale of confidence.

If I'm 99% sure it's the four morph animal, I'll say so, and price it as a four morph animal, with some kind of genetic guarantee that is fair to both myself and my customer. (I'd get into more details on that, but have to dash in about two minutes)

If I'm 75% sure, I'd probably offer it at a price somewhere between what a 3 or 4 morph combo would go for and be very open about what I believe and let the customer decide if they want to take the risk on spending it...do they pay a little extra for a really nice 3-gene? Or get a 4-gene at a bargain? This price would not guarantee that fourth gene.

If I'm 50% sure...really, just can't tell one way or the other...then I'd be clear on that and price it as a 3-gene animal in which the buyer might be getting a really good deal on a 4-gene animal. Obviously, there would again be no guarantee on that fourth gene.

If it's a smorgasbord of genetics and I have no way to determine which ones are which, then prices of the animals will have to be determined on a case-by-case basis (as they often already are, given variances in quality) based on the parentage, likelihood of present genes, and appearance. Again...I could probably ramble on considerably on all my thoughts about how such a case might pan out, but I have to start my afternoon taxi runs.

Guarantees are just that. IF I promise a gene is there, then I will guarantee it is there. If I'm not sure....then I'll make that clear and offer no promises.

The whole thing is being able to "prove" whats in it. Some of the snakes I see that are over 3 gene are really hard for me to tell. Then again I am at the bottom of the ladder and my eye is not that well trained.
I would not try to sell a het as a het unless it is to someone I know really well, I would rather take the loss but inform them there is the possibility of "X" in mix.
This brings up, How many people have bought normals that the breeder just wanted to unload and not prove? Who knows IF the "normal" at petco is a het "???"

This brings up a :hijackd::hijackd::hijackd::D:D
Just because I havent found a pic of one.
What would an OG-BEL look like??
and would the BEL genes over run the OG and still not have any color?

okay, my head is hurting now...................I'm going back to the kiddie table:oops:

Now that I'm back with a little more time, I'll add a couple more thoughts...

One...it's a breeder's choice to get into multiple-morph pairings that might produce "mystery" offspring. If the breeder is terribly bothered by the lack of certainty with each individual snake, then maybe they should stick with pairings that will produce visual certainty?

Two...it's nothing new even in today's environment for breeders to be uncertain about a hatchling's genetics, even with single-gene base morphs or two-gene combos. How many threads have we seen lately with people asking for help identifying their own hatchlings? Some base morphs are very subtle, and "low quality" versions may look very "normal". This is an issue that everyone should be prepared to deal with at ANY level of breeding.

And lastly....I'd like to apologize for any lack of patience I've shown. I don't see a problem with mutli-gene snakes. The idea of them doesn't scare me...it doesn't make me afraid for the future of the hobby...how to deal with the issue from a breeder/business standpoint seems pretty straight forward to me. But just because that is how I see it doesn't mean others might not be stressed out by the prospect, and I apologize for getting impatient with different points of view.

So there are my thoughts on the matter. Hope they help someone. :)

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Originally Posted by JLC

I believe I'd have to set some sort of personal scale of confidence.

If I'm 99% sure it's the four morph animal, I'll say so, and price it as a four morph animal, with some kind of genetic guarantee that is fair to both myself and my customer. (I'd get into more details on that, but have to dash in about two minutes)

If I'm 75% sure, I'd probably offer it at a price somewhere between what a 3 or 4 morph combo would go for and be very open about what I believe and let the customer decide if they want to take the risk on spending it...do they pay a little extra for a really nice 3-gene? Or get a 4-gene at a bargain? This price would not guarantee that fourth gene.

If I'm 50% sure...really, just can't tell one way or the other...then I'd be clear on that and price it as a 3-gene animal in which the buyer might be getting a really good deal on a 4-gene animal. Obviously, there would again be no guarantee on that fourth gene.

If it's a smorgasbord of genetics and I have no way to determine which ones are which, then prices of the animals will have to be determined on a case-by-case basis (as they often already are, given variances in quality) based on the parentage, likelihood of present genes, and appearance. Again...I could probably ramble on considerably on all my thoughts about how such a case might pan out, but I have to start my afternoon taxi runs.

Guarantees are just that. IF I promise a gene is there, then I will guarantee it is there. If I'm not sure....then I'll make that clear and offer no promises.

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Thank you. This is part of what I guess I was looking for in this thread. With the 99% one, how could you guarantee it in a way that works for you and the buyer?

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Originally Posted by JLC

And lastly....I'd like to apologize for any lack of patience I've shown. I don't see a problem with mutli-gene snakes. The idea of them doesn't scare me...it doesn't make me afraid for the future of the hobby...how to deal with the issue from a breeder/business standpoint seems pretty straight forward to me. But just because that is how I see it doesn't mean others might not be stressed out by the prospect, and I apologize for getting impatient with different points of view.

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Thank you for that... I do on rare occasion have a tendancy to over think things... Problem is it usually happens when I am SUPPOSED to be focusing on something else completely! :rolleye2:

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Originally Posted by Mike Cavanaugh

Thank you. This is part of what I guess I was looking for in this thread. With the 99% one, how could you guarantee it in a way that works for you and the buyer?

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The key to making it work for both is being VERY clear right from the get-go exactly what the guarantee covers...what is needed to prove the claim...and exactly what the coverage would be for a valid claim. Once those details are set BEFORE the transaction ever takes place....everyone should be happy. The buyer knows going in what the end results will be.

If the proof needed to make a valid claim is a minimum of x-number of eggs hatched without a visible genetic offspring...then the buyer is aware that he will be making a gamble of time, at the very least. And the buyer will already know what his compensation should be. Will he be 100% happy? Probably not, but that's a risk we take with every animal we buy and try to breed. I, as the seller, wouldn't exactly be happy either, to have to compensate someone for a deal done potentially years in the past. BUT, I would honor that deal.

What is fair? Whatever the seller and buyer agree to BEFORE the transaction takes place.

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Originally Posted by Mike Cavanaugh

I do on rare occasion have a tendancy to over think things... Problem is it usually happens when I am SUPPOSED to be focusing on something else completely! :rolleye2:

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Ohhh, the heavens know I can relate to that. :oops:

There definitely is going to be plenty of mis-identification with morphs when more genes are added. Some 5 bangers will be easy to spot, while others will be near impossible. Once multiple 5-6 gene combos are done within a particular morph, it might be possible to start getting a better idea of what that combo should look like.

Even now, their are combos that are sold for cheaper due to the fact that you cannot guarantee what it is. For instance, I sold a Super Mojave that had the potential to be a Pewter Super Mojave and anything in between. You could tell that it was not a straight Super Mojave, but was a combo, but who really knows what. I sold it for more than a Super Mojave, but less than a Pewter Super Mojave... I dont see a problem at all being 100% up front with the buyer and stating what you know and its potential... The buyer then can use their education on morphs to decide wether or not they want to pay more for that snake.

I have also picked up a Pewter Kingpin that I think might be a Super Pastel since the only photo I found looked much duller than mine. I picked up a Power Pin that I think might have Pastel, and was told it is possible, but was very dark as hatchling and that they didnt believe it was. Those could work in my favor, but more than likely will work out as they were sold to me. Either way, the potential for cool combos when breeding a Pewter Kingpin to a Pastel or Pastel YB would be amazing. Their might be a couple snakes that you dont know what exactly they are, but you will have a bunch of really nice combos!

To me, I dont really see a problem... Their are enough morphs combos out there that have not been done, to where once the waters get muddy, it might be time to back out of that direction and pick a different direction to go. The Ultimate Lemon Blast! The Ultimate Bee! Whatever paint jobs you could imagine and try and keep the lines more clear. Maybe adding dark morphs like the GHI! What would a GHI Crystal (GHI Mojave Special) look like? Thinking about how the Mystic reacted, I would think it would be a semi-dark snake allowing even more genes to be added and identified. Its just really thinking of what direction you want to go. I am already working on what I think will be one of the cleanest Lemon Blasts around! The Special Power Blast (Special-Pastel-Super Spotnose-Pinstripe)!!!!:P

It just is what it is and in reality I am excited to see what the future brings... What will a Pastel Mystic Crystal Super Stripe look like? So many combos that are not even en route yet...:gj: So I dont really think its a problem, its just part of the future of breeding.

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Originally Posted by JLC

Convince someone to foot the bill for genetic mapping of ball pythons and then have every morph tested and proven that way?

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First let me say I am TOTALLY new to all this. That said, this seems like the logical progression we're going towards here. Genetic mapping is getting cheaper and cheaper, and with more computing power and appropriate software it will be easier to map gene influences. To take a very simple morph, the pastel gene would likely be one of the first mapped and confirmed just because its so easy to identify by eye first. So I don't see this technology being widely available in the next 10 years, but I would expect it to be here in the next 20 certainly.

Once a simple genetic test can prove what genes each morph carries, then I believe the morphs will become more and more refined up to 3 and 4 morphs. That will lower the price on high end snakes, but up the price on high quality single morphs where shoddy 4 or 5 morphs won't be accepted anymore based on the maybe of their genetics.

How do the rest of you see advances in genetics influencing the BP market? Am I totally off base?

Isnt this the start of full blown domestication? Although I believe we are some time away from it. Simmilar to dog breeds, cat, sheep, cattle breeds, etc. Where a breeder would breed eg yellow bps (random name) and another breeder would do the same but his yellow bps would be worth more because they dont have the health issues that the other line has. And if you were to breed a yellow bp to a black bp (random name) you would get mongrel (genetically unknown bp) bps? Where it is line breeding to improve specific characteristics rather than getting as many base morphs into one snake like we are trying to do now (which will lead to the development of specific lines)? But as I said at the beginning we are propably only reaching the start of this and it will take a long time to actually get to this stage. I hope I have explained myself in an understandable way...