Bogus Het question ?

Thank you all, she was purchased from a good friend and he has let the original breeder know of this situation. To be continued :)

I had the reverse happen this season-Pastel X Normal, 7 eggs. The result was 7 Pastels! Chances of that happening? Exactly the same-0.78%! So it does happen.

Last year I bred a Hypo male to a proven Het Hypo female (she produced hypos the year before), 7 eggs, 7 normals...

It happens

I wish we hat paternity testing available. It might turn out parthenogenesis isn't rare but with few breeding female morphs so far didn't get noticed.

It happens sometimes... I know of a Het Albino female that for 5 years of being bred to an Albino didn't once produce a single Albino. The breeder assumed that she wasn't a Het, sold her, and the very next year, she produced 6 Albinos and 1 Het (by being bred to a Het Male)... In the end, the odds will even out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LGL

It happens sometimes... I know of a Het Albino female that for 5 years of being bred to an Albino didn't once produce a single Albino. The breeder assumed that she wasn't a Het, sold her, and the very next year, she produced 6 Albinos and 1 Het (by being bred to a Het Male)... In the end, the odds will even out.

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I know of a breeder that put a Mojave to a Normal and produced all normals of that clutch. Numbers are just that..."numbers."

I personally thing that people put too much faith in that concept "odds." Sometimes they just don't go the way we want.:please:

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

Bottom line is every egg as an individual had a 50/50 shot at being an albino. It happens, I had a 6 egg clutch last year Spider & pastel to normal got 6 normals. So yea it can happen. We must remember that the odds are not per clutch but per egg. We had a Spider to normal that gave us 7 eggs and only one spider..I'd say give her another year and if nothing pops out start questioning it..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Watever

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

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This looks familiar from stats way back in the day....need to pull the book off the shelf and wipe off the dust...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Watever

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

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1 egg is 1/2
2 egg is 1/4
3 egg is 1/8
4 egg is 1/16
5 egg is 1/32
6 egg is 1/64
7 egg is 1/128 = .78%

by your logic a 2 egg would yeild 3 out comes

AA
AN
NN

so chance would be 1/3 which is wrong, your forgetting someone

AA
AN
NA
NN

wish it worked that way, would be alot easier to get double or triple morphs lol.

so your table should have 128 outcomes thats also have things such as
ANAAAAA
AANAAAA
AAANAAA
ect

also i remeber Brian on snakebytes said that there was a guy who went through 20 or 30 some eggs before proving out a het. sometimes life sucks i guess lol.