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Piebald probability help?

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  • 05-17-2017, 07:21 PM
    paulh
    Re: Piebald probability help?
    There are four possible matings of a pair of 50% probability het pieds:
    1. male not het pied x female not het pied.
    2. male not het pied x female het pied.
    3. male het pied x female not het pied.
    4. male het pied x female het pied.

    Only mating 4 can produce pied babies. So there is a 25% chance of selecting two het pieds from a batch of normal-looking 50% probability het pieds.

    There are two possible matings of a 50% probability het pied male to a het pied female:
    1. male not het pied x female het pied.
    2. male het pied x female het pied.

    Only mating 2 can produce pied babies. So there is a 50% chance of selecting a het pied male from a batch of normal-looking 50% probability het pied males.

    Mating a 50% probability het pied to a het pied gives much better odds (50% vs. 25%) of getting pied babies. By the way, 100% het pied is a long way of writing het pied.

    My own opinion is the swapping your 50% probability het pieds for someone else's 50% probability het pieds minimizes the inbreeding and makes for better genetic health long term. Perhaps even better would be swapping several 50% probability het pieds for an unrelated het pied male.
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