het...?

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Not to nit pick BUT...

The chance that a pair of 50% hets are BOTH hets is actually only 25%. However, the chance that they are both not het is only that also

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That's exactly what I said above ...

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Originally Posted by Marla

But just as likely as their both being actual hets is that they're both normals, in which case all you will get are normals.

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

so if the original pair doesn't produce clowns you could breed offspring back to both parents and have a good chance of eventually producing a clown.

Of course you also have to deal with the odds of hitting on the 25% chance in one of the eggs in a small clutch. Here is a chart I made with the odds for certain clutch sizes:

http://snakemorphs.home.comcast.net/odds.htm#table

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Thanks, Randy. I hadn't seen a formula for calculating odds across clutches yet. That will come in handy.

this stuff is so confusing..... i think i understand though.... thank you all for helping me out


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sry i had to let that out. everyone is so helpful here

Someone said that the odds where 50% that they where both hets, however, you find the odds of both things happening (them both being hets) by multiplying together the odds of each unrelated event (the 50% chance that each one has) in order to come up with the 25% chance that both are hets. Since they each are also both 50% chance not hets it does come out the same as was also stated by someone.

Oops, you're right. Jennifer said

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Originally Posted by emroul

If you bred a 50% possible het with a 50% possible het, you have a 50% chance that both of those are actually 100% het.

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and I think what she meant was

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If you bred a 50% possible het with a 50% possible het, you have a 50% chance that each of those is actually 100% het.

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but you're quite right that you multiply your odds to come up with the odds of both events occurring (ie., 50%*50%=25%). I was working out a lot of this stuff recently, so it's pretty fresh in my head, but I can certainly see how it would confuse someone who hasn't had a biology class with a portion devoted to genetics recently, and having to be careful on wording to avoid misinterpretation makes it even more of a challenge.