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  • 09-25-2011, 05:25 PM
    Serpent_Nirvana
    Is there a way to calculate the per clutch odds of hitting on a given morph by multiplying the per egg odds and subtracting from 100, or something like that?

    Am I dreaming things? Statistics was a looong time ago ... :O

    So for example: Odds per egg of NOT getting a bumblebee are 75%

    He has four eggs in this clutch

    0.75^4 = 0.32 --> 32% chance of totally missing the bumblebee .. ??

    100 - 32 --> 68% chance of hitting the bumblebee in that clutch ..??

    ... I totally and completely made that up ... It might be totally and completely wrong. ... Does anyone remember if there is a way to calculate that? :confused:
  • 09-25-2011, 06:52 PM
    MidSouthMorphs
    Re: whats the chances a of bumble bee in my female spiders first ever clucth
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Serpent_Nirvana View Post
    Is there a way to calculate the per clutch odds of hitting on a given morph by multiplying the per egg odds and subtracting from 100, or something like that?

    Am I dreaming things? Statistics was a looong time ago ... :O

    So for example: Odds per egg of NOT getting a bumblebee are 75%

    He has four eggs in this clutch

    0.75^4 = 0.32 --> 32% chance of totally missing the bumblebee .. ??

    100 - 32 --> 68% chance of hitting the bumblebee in that clutch ..??

    ... I totally and completely made that up ... It might be totally and completely wrong. ... Does anyone remember if there is a way to calculate that? :confused:

    Not to a point no, I'll just go with what you said. It looks good atleast. I think the 25% solution makes it easier to follow, that is what I go with to keep it simple.
  • 09-26-2011, 08:22 PM
    MS2
    Re: whats the chances a of bumble bee in my female spiders first ever clucth
    http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/a...telXSpider.jpg

    My first time odds this year from pastel X spider. 3 bumble bees, 3 pastel, and 1 normal. I think I hit those "lotto odds"
  • 09-26-2011, 10:07 PM
    RandyRemington
    Re: whats the chances a of bumble bee in my female spiders first ever clucth
    Exactly right Serpent_Nirvana. This is why the more eggs the better your odds!

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Serpent_Nirvana View Post
    Is there a way to calculate the per clutch odds of hitting on a given morph by multiplying the per egg odds and subtracting from 100, or something like that?

    Am I dreaming things? Statistics was a looong time ago ... :O

    So for example: Odds per egg of NOT getting a bumblebee are 75%

    He has four eggs in this clutch

    0.75^4 = 0.32 --> 32% chance of totally missing the bumblebee .. ??

    100 - 32 --> 68% chance of hitting the bumblebee in that clutch ..??

    ... I totally and completely made that up ... It might be totally and completely wrong. ... Does anyone remember if there is a way to calculate that? :confused:

  • 09-27-2011, 01:22 PM
    Subdriven
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MS2 View Post
    http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/a...telXSpider.jpg

    My first time odds this year from pastel X spider. 3 bumble bees, 3 pastel, and 1 normal. I think I hit those "lotto odds"

    My first year tying for a bee was 5 spiders, 1 pastel and 2 normals. This year with the same pairing I got 5 spiders 1 pastel 1 normal and 1 bee.
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