Probability of new morph

How likely (probability-wise) do you think it is to make an entirely new morph? I was arguing about it with a friend who thinks he can make one no problem and I'm saying it really doesn't happen that often and he shouldn't get his hopes up.

The odds of a new, reproducible, morph popping up randomly in a clutch are ridiculously low. Most, if not all, of the current morphs were simply the result of proving out imported animals. There are lots of proven morphs out there though with thousands of combinations. Producing a worlds first is not as rare a thing and maybe that's what your friend was thinking?

wouldn't say it's Hard but also wouldn't say is no problem either. All depends on what the breeding is. Chances are higher of producing world firsts if the breeding has not been done before or has not been done often and lower if it's a common breeding. but you probably knew this since it's basically common sense. P.s I'm currently working on a project that I don't believe has been yet so my chances of a new morph are fairly high but we'll see.

First, what are you calling a morph? If you are talking about an entirely new gene, you would need someone to calculated the rate of mutation and take into account all the variables associated with it, which is damn near impossible at this point. However I can assure you that a mutation that causes a visible change that doesn't alter the survivability of the animal is extremely rare. I don't think one has knowingly happened in a private collection.

If you are just calling a morph a never seen combination of morphs.... thats easy, take two morphs that haven't been seen together and breed them, congrats on your new combo.