Poss Hets

[Got Balls?]

so if i bred a 50% poss het to a non het will the offspring still be considered 50% or 25% poss het

[Freakie_frog]

Percentages on poss bet can only be figured when one of the parents is a known het.

[PitOnTheProwl]

They would all be normal until proven otherwise

[PitOnTheProwl]

Is your possible the male or female? Het for what?

[RandyRemington]

If you bred a large number of 50% hets to normal and produced a bunch of babies you would expect 25% of those babies to be hets. However there is a fundamental difference between 25% (and 33%) hets and the 50/66% het parents in that the 33% chance and lower hets are one extra generation removed from a for sure het. The babies from a single pairing of 50% het X normal would actually be either 50% or 0% hets depending on if the possible het parent hit or not.

Even when expensive hets where more common many had no taste for possible hets much less possible possible hets. But then I've proven three 25% chance het pied girls and a 33% chance het caramel girl so I'm an exception. I'm hoping to get eggs from a 12.5% chance het pied girl this year but with the markers in pied it's not really a long shot that she'll prove.

[Pythonfriend]

the answer to the question would be 25%. But if the 50% possible het proves out, it jumps to 50%. if the 50% possible het doesnt prove out, it goes to zero.


but it all comes down to statistics and as the possibilities get more remote, the math gets less meaningful and more complicated.

if you manage to prove something out, the possible het parents turn into 100% proven hets, thats clear.

But if you for example breed a visual to a possible 50% het, and get 4 eggs and no hit, its no longer a 50% het. You know you got 4 misses and no hits and if it would be a 100% het, the chances of that occuring are just 6.25%. So all the percentages for possible hets only make sense for snakes that have not been bred in any pairing where you could hit a visible, as soon as you get eggs the numbers change.

Also its a bit pointless for practical reasons, breeders working on a recessive project can easily avoid the production of possible hets (producing visuals and 100% hets) and often do so. So there are enough 100% hets out there to make 66% hets quite unattractive, 50% hets become almost completely meaningless, and people dont care for anything lower than that.

[SlitherinSisters]

I think they would technically have a 25% chance of being hets, but people never call something 25% pos het, they call them normals. If your 50% het turns out to be a normal all the babies would obviously be 100% normal. If you prove out your 50% het it turns into a het (100% het) and you would be able to call the babies 50% pos hets if bred to a normal. Your first step would be proving out your het as something more than a normal.