Odds Youve Had with Hets

[hops523]

Whats up everyone. So Ive got a little decision to make. Im thinking of getting a breeding sized pair of het albinos this season, and see how breeding goes this season(it would be my first time breeding). So obviously the hopes are to produce at least one albino. Im thinking of doing that, OR from the same breeder I can get an 09 female yellow belly or two that wouldnt be ready to go until next year, and pair them with my male spider.

At this point Id rather go with the het albino pair and see how breeding goes and see if they can produce an albino. But still eventually add a yellow belly female for my spider.

So I guess I said all that so I could ask you all what your odds have been with getting what you want when you have a 25% chance of getting it, specifically with hets? Have you had good or bad luck?
Thanks

[angllady2]

This varies from person to person and clutch to clutch.

Since the odds are technically 1 in 4 PER egg, if you have an 8 egg clutch statistics say you'll have 2 albinos, but you might not get any, or all eight might be albino.

Hatching a het clutch is something like playing roulette. Or if your a Forrest Gump fan, " Eggs are like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get."

Gale

[Blue Apple Herps]

Its odds. No one has experience with them per se, they either get lucky or don't or in between.

Even with a yellowbelly and spider, you're still playing odds if you breed them. You could get all normals, or you could get all yellowbelly spiders.

I personally have had clutches of 20 snakes (corns) that should have given me 5 visuals and I got 1. On the flip side this year in a 6 egg clutch from cinnamon x mojave, I got all morphs.

Unless you're doing homo/super to homo/super then you're playing the odds games. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Over time you always pretty much break even.

[Brandon Osborne]

2005 het Pied X het Pied: 4 Pieds, 5 66% pos. het Pieds
2006 het Pied X het Pied: 4 Pieds, 4 66% pos. het Pieds
2008 Pied X Pewter: 3 Pewter het Pieds, 1 Pastel het Pied, 1 het Pied
2009 Pied X Pewter: 2 Pewter het Pieds, 1 Pastel het Pied, 2 Cinny het Pied, 2 het Pied
2010 Pewter het Pied X Pied: 2 Pewter Pieds, 2 Pewter het Pieds, 1 Pastel het Pied
2010 Pewter het Pied X Pastel het Pied: 1 Pewter Pied, 1 Pewter, 1 Pied
2010 Pewter het Pied X Pastel het Pied: 1 Pied, 2 Pewter 66% het Pied, 2 Cinny 66% het Pied

Just some examples.

[hops523]

Yeah, I understand I technically have a 1 in 4 chance. And that everyones and every clutches chances vary.

Honestly, I was just seeing how all of your clutches turned out when you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting what you really want.

And I understand that the chances of getting a yb spider from a spider x yb is still a 1 in 4 chance, but if I do get one, it would probably be more "valuable" as I continue my breeding journey, and try to produce an ivory spider haha.

EDIT: Thanks Brandon Osborne I appreciate the results you posted

[RandyRemington]

The way the 25% per egg odds work the more eggs the better your cumulative chance of hitting on at least one. With the 8 egg clutch your odds of getting AT LEAST 1 albino is 1 - 0.75^8 = 90%. With only 4 eggs your odds fall to 68%. And of course a 1 egg clutch would be the only time your odds would fall all the way to 25%.

I've never bred a pair of 100% hets much less a visual homozygous recessive so my results are a little misleading as they leave out all the possible het clutches that I didn't hit on but the two times I've had albinos in eggs where:

66% chance het X 50% chance het with two albinos in two full term eggs
66% chance het X 50% chance het (different pair than above) with one albino in five eggs

[alan1]

as already said, the odds can go either way

hatched in august - pied x lesser - 5 eggs - 5 lessers

[joepythons]

I had a clutch of 5 eggs from a 100% het albino to a 100% het albino.The results were 1 egg died 4 66% hets no albinos .Its a roll of the dice

[hops523]

Thanks for the replies everyone. Im going to skip on the adult het albinos, and go with an 09 female yellow belly in hopes of producing yb spiders in the future.

[wnieuwenhuis]

This year I got 2 clutches (spider)het. pied x het. pied, 10 eggs, 5.4 66% ph. pied and one ph pied died in the egg. Missed the pieds Hopefully it gets better this year.